MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary May 31, 2010

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

SPU0

Lower

May

1178.80

1196.80

1034.80

1084.20

30%

89%

1034.80

1000.12

1065.20

USU0

Higher

May

118~030

126~050

117~180

122~210

59%

100%

126~050

131~118

122~250

TYU0

Higher

May

116~200

121~205

116~050

119~280

68%

100%

121~205

125~086

119~285

JYU0

Higher

May

106.63

113.87

105.48

110.33

58%

92%

113.87

118.43

109.80

DXU0

Higher

May

82.265

87.925

82.410

86.922

82%

85%

87.925

89.912

87.085

SIU0

Lower

May

1866.7

1986.5

1715.0

1846.1

48%

85%

1715.0

1554.9

1859.1

SQ0

Lower

May

997.50

1001.00

920.25

927.75

95%

920.25

846.00

920.75

SU0

Lower

May

983.75

987.00

903.50

914.75

13%

90%

903.50

838.51

908.50

BOU0

Lower

May

39.25

39.40

37.25

38.07

38%

86%

37.25

33.87

37.96

BOV0

Lower

May

39.38

39.57

37.46

38.25

37%

91%

37.46

34.26

38.16

BOZ0

Lower

May

39.76

40.01

37.83

38.68

39%

91%

37.83

34.81

38.62

SMQ0

Lower

May

291.70

293.10

264.60

267.50

10%

89%

264.60

242.69

263.10

SMU0

Lower

May

286.90

288.30

258.80

261.50

89%

258.80

237.26

257.40

SMV0

Lower

May

278.90

280.40

250.50

254.10

12%

84%

250.50

230.75

250.80

CU0

Lower

May

383.50

391.00

362.00

369.00

24%

91%

362.00

327.78

364.00

CZ0

Lower

May

392.25

399.00

372.00

380.00

30%

87%

372.00

337.79

375.25

WU0

Lower

May

518.75

532.00

474.00

475.25

91%

474.00

435.75

468.25

WZ0

Lower

May

545.75

558.25

504.50

505.50

91%

504.50

465.84

498.75

KWU0

Lower

May

526.25

539.25

492.50

493.50

94%

492.50

451.19

490.00

KWZ0

Lower

May

544.00

556.50

510.25

510.75

94%

510.25

470.03

507.50

MWU0

Lower

May

549.25

557.00

514.00

518.75

11%

88%

514.00

470.54

514.50

MWZ0

Lower

May

566.50

575.00

531.50

535.50

94%

531.50

494.97

531.50

OU0

Lower

May

222.00

225.00

195.75

199.25

12%

95%

195.75

172.12

202.50

RRU0

Lower

May

12.26

12.24

11.00

11.67

54%

92%

11.00

10.01

11.61

FCV0

Lower

May

115.150

116.500

107.000

108.150

12%

86%

107.000

100.521

108.400

LEQ0

Lower

May

86.600

87.300

80.700

82.800

32%

90%

80.700

73.999

83.650

LEV0

Lower

May

76.875

77.400

72.575

75.250

55%

90%

72.575

65.612

75.875

LEZ0

Lower

May

74.300

74.350

68.775

71.925

57%

90%

68.775

61.314

72.800

KCU0

Lower

May

136.60

140.00

131.60

135.80

50%

84%

131.60

112.61

138.05

SBV0

Lower

May

15.81

15.96

13.67

14.69

45%

85%

13.67

11.37

14.90

SBH1

Lower

May

16.61

16.65

14.56

15.65

52%

88%

14.56

12.57

15.89

CCZ0

Lower

May

3272

3279

2830

3017

42%

85%

2830

2607

3043

LBU0

Lower

May

313.8

309.9

233.0

242.0

12%

93%

233.0

208.9

237.0

LBX0

Lower

May

296.0

292.9

224.8

231.8

10%

100%

224.8

206.5

230.0

September S & P 500(CME): The SPU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1178.80(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1084.20(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 1034.80(Month Low) to 1196.80(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, SPU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should penetrate 1034.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 1000.12(Average Objective).
September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 118~03(Prev Close), the market ended May at 122~21(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 117~18(Month Low) to 126~05(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, USU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 126~05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 131~12(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 116~200(Prev Close), the market ended May at 119~280(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 116~050(Month Low) to 121~205(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, TYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 121~205(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 125~086(Average Objective).
September Japanese Yen(CME): The JYU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 106.63(Prev Close), the market ended May at 110.33(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 105.48(Month Low) to 113.87(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, JYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYU should exceed 113.87(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 118.43(Average Objective).
September US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 82.265(Prev Close), the market ended May at 86.923(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 82.410(Month Low) to 87.925(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, DXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 87.925(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 89.912(Average Objective).
September Silver(CMX): The SIU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1866.7(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1846.1(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 1715.0(Month Low) to 1986.5(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Silver(CMX) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SIU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIU should penetrate 1715.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1554.9(Average Objective).
August Soybeans(CBOT): The SQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 997.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 927.75(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 920.25(Month Low) to 1001.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should penetrate 920.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 846.00(Average Objective).
September Soybeans(CBOT): The SU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 983.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 914.75(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 903.50(Month Low) to 987.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should penetrate 903.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 838.51(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 39.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 38.07(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 37.25(Month Low) to 39.40(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, BOU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 37.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 33.87(Average Objective).
October Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOV0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 39.38(Prev Close), the market ended May at 38.25(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 37.46(Month Low) to 39.57(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BOV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 37.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 34.26(Average Objective).
December Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 39.76(Prev Close), the market ended May at 38.68(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 37.83(Month Low) to 40.01(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BOZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should penetrate 37.83(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 34.81(Average Objective).
August Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 291.70(Prev Close), the market ended May at 267.50(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 264.60(Month Low) to 293.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SMQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should penetrate 264.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 242.69(Average Objective).
September Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 286.90(Prev Close), the market ended May at 261.50(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 258.80(Month Low) to 288.30(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SMU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 258.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 237.26(Average Objective).
October Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMV0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 278.90(Prev Close), the market ended May at 254.10(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 250.50(Month Low) to 280.40(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SMV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMV should penetrate 250.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 230.75(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 383.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 369.00(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 362.00(Month Low) to 391.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 362.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 327.78(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 392.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 380.00(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 372.00(Month Low) to 399.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 372.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 337.79(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 518.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 475.25(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 474.00(Month Low) to 532.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, WU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 474.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 435.75(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 545.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 505.50(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 504.50(Month Low) to 558.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, WZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 504.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 465.84(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 526.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 493.50(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 492.50(Month Low) to 539.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, KWU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 492.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 451.19(Average Objective).
December Wheat(KCBT): The KWZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 544.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 510.75(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 510.25(Month Low) to 556.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, KWZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 510.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 470.03(Average Objective).
September Wheat(MGE): The MWU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 549.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 518.75(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 514.00(Month Low) to 557.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, MWU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWU should penetrate 514.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 470.54(Average Objective).
December Wheat(MGE): The MWZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 566.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 535.50(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 531.50(Month Low) to 575.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, MWZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWZ should penetrate 531.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 494.97(Average Objective).
September Oats(CBOT): The OU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 222.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 199.25(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 195.75(Month Low) to 225.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, OU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should penetrate 195.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 172.12(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 12.26(Prev Close), the market ended May at 11.67(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 11.00(Month Low) to 12.24(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, RRU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 11.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 10.01(Average Objective).
October Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCV0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 115.150(Prev Close), the market ended May at 108.150(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 107.000(Month Low) to 116.500(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, FCV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCV should penetrate 107.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 100.520(Average Objective).
August Lean Hogs(CME): The LEQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 86.600(Prev Close), the market ended May at 82.800(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 80.700(Month Low) to 87.300(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LEQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should penetrate 80.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 74.000(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The LEV0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 76.885(Prev Close), the market ended May at 75.250(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 72.585(Month Low) to 77.400(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LEV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should penetrate 72.585(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 65.622(Average Objective).
December Lean Hogs(CME): The LEZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 74.300(Prev Close), the market ended May at 71.930(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 68.780(Month Low) to 74.350(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LEZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should penetrate 68.780(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 61.317(Average Objective).
September Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 136.60(Prev Close), the market ended May at 135.80(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 131.60(Month Low) to 140.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KCU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 131.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 112.61(Average Objective).
October Sugar #11(ICE): The SBV0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 15.81(Prev Close), the market ended May at 14.69(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 13.67(Month Low) to 15.96(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SBV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should penetrate 13.67(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 11.37(Average Objective).
March Sugar #11(ICE): The SBH1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 16.61(Prev Close), the market ended May at 15.65(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 14.56(Month Low) to 16.65(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SBH went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should penetrate 14.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 12.57(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 3272(Prev Close), the market ended May at 3017(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 2830(Month Low) to 3279(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CCZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2830(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 2607(Average Objective).
September Lumber(CME): The LBU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 313.8(Prev Close), the market ended May at 242.0(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 233.0(Month Low) to 309.9(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LBU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 233.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 208.9(Average Objective).
November Lumber(CME): The LBX0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 296.0(Prev Close), the market ended May at 231.8(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 224.8(Month Low) to 292.9(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LBX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should penetrate 224.8(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 206.6(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash