MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Dec 31, 2009

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Dec

10345.00

10580.00

10236.00

10428.00

56%

93%

10580.00

11143.19

10428.00

#TRAN

Higher

Dec

3937.90

4213.60

3939.00

4099.60

58%

93%

4213.60

4604.42

4099.60

#OEX

Higher

Dec

510.75

520.50

504.55

514.10

60%

100%

520.50

547.53

514.10

#NDX

Higher

Dec

1767.40

1882.60

1759.30

1860.30

82%

91%

1882.60

2058.19

1860.30

#RUT

Higher

Dec

579.75

636.00

579.75

625.40

81%

96%

636.00

681.39

625.40

#MID

Higher

Dec

684.75

743.15

684.75

726.65

72%

95%

743.15

781.38

726.65

#VLE

Higher

Dec

2111.40

2293.90

2118.90

2259.50

80%

95%

2293.90

2441.68

2259.50

#SSNI

Higher

Dec

9346

10708

9233

10546

89%

Yes

11301

10546

#SP

Higher

Dec

1095.65

1130.40

1085.90

1115.10

66%

94%

1130.40

1181.79

1115.10

SPH0

Higher

Dec

1089.90

1128.20

1081.00

1110.70

63%

100%

1128.20

1182.16

1110.70

EDH0

Higher

Dec

99.615

99.655

99.500

99.645

94%

99.655

100.033

99.645

SFH0

Lower

Dec

99.45

100.45

95.22

96.69

28%

93%

95.22

89.59

96.69

JYH0

Lower

Dec

115.97

116.11

107.38

107.40

94%

107.38

103.41

107.40

BPH0

Lower

Dec

164.12

167.10

158.25

161.46

36%

86%

158.25

151.23

161.46

CDH0

Higher

Dec

94.60

96.50

93.03

95.62

75%

88%

96.50

98.14

95.62

DXH0

Higher

Dec

75.285

78.770

74.655

78.220

87%

89%

78.770

80.763

78.220

GCJ0

Lower

Dec

1183.6

1229.0

1076.5

1097.6

14%

88%

1076.5

1007.7

1097.6

PLJ0

Higher

Dec

1462.2

1515.0

1387.7

1471.0

65%

85%

1515.0

1771.0

1471.0

PAH0

Higher

Dec

366.20

410.00

346.00

408.85

98%

89%

410.00

508.88

408.85

HGH0

Higher

Dec

317.70

337.90

308.15

334.65

89%

88%

337.90

377.52

334.65

HOJ0

Higher

Dec

211.62

215.98

194.10

212.63

85%

93%

215.98

233.71

212.63

HOK0

Higher

Dec

212.85

216.54

195.52

213.19

84%

92%

216.54

234.51

213.19

RBJ0

Higher

Dec

217.89

222.25

199.35

218.09

82%

100%

222.25

242.40

218.09

NGJ0

Higher

Dec

5.029

5.940

4.595

5.505

68%

100%

5.940

6.965

5.505

NGK0

Higher

Dec

5.094

5.953

4.656

5.545

69%

100%

5.953

6.911

5.545

BOH0

Lower

Dec

40.97

41.79

38.06

40.78

73%

86%

38.06

35.85

40.78

BOK0

Lower

Dec

41.29

42.10

38.46

41.16

74%

88%

38.46

36.26

41.16

LCJ0

Higher

Dec

88.135

89.950

85.050

89.800

97%

96%

89.950

95.253

89.800

LCM0

Higher

Dec

85.300

87.750

83.150

87.730

100%

93%

87.750

91.578

87.730

LCQ0

Higher

Dec

85.680

87.750

83.500

87.700

99%

97%

87.750

91.372

87.700

FCH0

Higher

Dec

93.750

96.335

90.980

96.250

98%

95%

96.335

101.489

96.250

FCJ0

Higher

Dec

95.200

97.650

92.930

97.635

100%

95%

97.650

102.595

97.635

PBH0

Higher

Dec

83.500

91.000

78.250

86.885

68%

94%

91.000

101.167

86.885

PBK0

Higher

Dec

84.500

92.500

81.000

88.900

69%

100%

92.500

102.395

88.900

KCK0

Lower

Dec

143.70

151.00

137.55

137.60

93%

137.55

127.65

137.60

KCN0

Lower

Dec

145.20

152.15

139.05

92%

139.05

129.94

139.05

SBN0

Higher

Dec

20.61

23.09

20.53

23.02

97%

87%

23.09

26.68

23.02

CCN0

Higher

Dec

3283

3512

3247

3307

23%

84%

3512

3882

3307

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 10345.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 10428.00(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 10236.00(Month Low) to 10580.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #DJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 10580.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 11143.19(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 3937.90(Prev Close), the market ended December at 4099.60(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 3939.00(Month Low) to 4213.60(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in December than November in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #TRAN went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4213.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 4604.42(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 510.75(Prev Close), the market ended December at 514.10(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 504.55(Month Low) to 520.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #OEX went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 520.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 547.53(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1767.40(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1860.30(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 1759.30(Month Low) to 1882.60(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in December than November in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, the #NDX went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1882.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 2058.19(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 579.75(Prev Close), the market ended December at 625.40(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 579.75(Month Low) to 636.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in December than November in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #RUT went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 636.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 681.39(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 684.75(Prev Close), the market ended December at 726.65(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 684.75(Month Low) to 743.15(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #MID went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 743.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 781.38(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2111.40(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2259.50(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 2118.90(Month Low) to 2293.90(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #VLE went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2293.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 2441.68(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 9346(Prev Close), the market ended December at 10546(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 9233(Month Low) to 10708(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in December than November in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #SSNI went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 10708(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 11301(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1095.65(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1115.10(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 1085.90(Month Low) to 1130.40(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in December than November in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, the #SP went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 30 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1130.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 30 years) a potential move toward 1181.79(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1089.90(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1110.70(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 1081.00(Month Low) to 1128.20(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SPH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1128.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1182.16(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 99.615(Prev Close), the market ended December at 99.645(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 99.500(Month Low) to 99.655(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, EDH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.655(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 100.033(Average Objective).
March Swiss Franc(CME): The SFH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 99.45(Prev Close), the market ended December at 96.69(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 95.22(Month Low) to 100.45(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SFH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should penetrate 95.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 89.59(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 115.97(Prev Close), the market ended December at 107.40(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 107.38(Month Low) to 116.11(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, JYH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 107.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 103.41(Average Objective).
March British Pound(CME): The BPH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 164.12(Prev Close), the market ended December at 161.46(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 158.25(Month Low) to 167.10(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March British Pound(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, BPH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPH should penetrate 158.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 151.23(Average Objective).
March Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 94.60(Prev Close), the market ended December at 95.62(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 93.03(Month Low) to 96.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CDH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDH should exceed 96.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 98.14(Average Objective).
March US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 75.285(Prev Close), the market ended December at 78.220(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 74.655(Month Low) to 78.770(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, DXH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXH should exceed 78.770(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 80.763(Average Objective).
April Gold(CMX): The GCJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1183.6(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1097.6(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 1076.5(Month Low) to 1229.0(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed lower in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, GCJ went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should penetrate 1076.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 1007.7(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1462.2(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1471.0(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 1387.7(Month Low) to 1515.0(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, PLJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1515.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1771.0(Average Objective).
March Palladium(NYMEX): The PAH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 366.20(Prev Close), the market ended December at 408.85(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 346.00(Month Low) to 410.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, PAH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 410.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 508.88(Average Objective).
March Copper(CMX): The HGH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 317.70(Prev Close), the market ended December at 334.65(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 308.15(Month Low) to 337.90(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 337.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 377.52(Average Objective).
April Heating Oil(NYM): The HOJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 211.62(Prev Close), the market ended December at 212.63(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 194.10(Month Low) to 215.98(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HOJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should exceed 215.98(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 233.71(Average Objective).
May Heating Oil(NYM): The HOK0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 212.85(Prev Close), the market ended December at 213.19(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 195.52(Month Low) to 216.54(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HOK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOK should exceed 216.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 234.51(Average Objective).
April Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 217.89(Prev Close), the market ended December at 218.09(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 199.35(Month Low) to 222.25(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, RBJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should exceed 222.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 242.40(Average Objective).
April Natural Gas(NYM): The NGJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 5.029(Prev Close), the market ended December at 5.505(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 4.595(Month Low) to 5.940(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, NGJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should exceed 5.940(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 6.965(Average Objective).
May Natural Gas(NYM): The NGK0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 5.094(Prev Close), the market ended December at 5.545(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 4.656(Month Low) to 5.953(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, NGK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should exceed 5.953(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 6.911(Average Objective).
March Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 40.97(Prev Close), the market ended December at 40.78(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 38.06(Month Low) to 41.79(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, BOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOH should penetrate 38.06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 35.85(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 41.29(Prev Close), the market ended December at 41.16(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 38.46(Month Low) to 42.10(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should penetrate 38.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 36.26(Average Objective).
April Live Cattle(CME): The LCJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 88.135(Prev Close), the market ended December at 89.800(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 85.050(Month Low) to 89.950(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 89.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 95.253(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 85.300(Prev Close), the market ended December at 87.730(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 83.150(Month Low) to 87.750(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, LCM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 87.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 91.578(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 85.680(Prev Close), the market ended December at 87.700(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 83.500(Month Low) to 87.750(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, LCQ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 97%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 87.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 91.372(Average Objective).
March Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 93.750(Prev Close), the market ended December at 96.250(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 90.980(Month Low) to 96.335(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, FCH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 96.335(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 101.489(Average Objective).
April Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 95.200(Prev Close), the market ended December at 97.635(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 92.930(Month Low) to 97.650(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, FCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 97.650(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 102.595(Average Objective).
March Pork Bellies(CME): The PBH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 83.500(Prev Close), the market ended December at 86.885(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 78.250(Month Low) to 91.000(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, PBH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBH should exceed 91.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 101.167(Average Objective).
May Pork Bellies(CME): The PBK0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 84.500(Prev Close), the market ended December at 88.900(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 81.000(Month Low) to 92.500(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, PBK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBK should exceed 92.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 102.395(Average Objective).
May Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCK0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 143.70(Prev Close), the market ended December at 137.60(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 137.55(Month Low) to 151.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KCK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 137.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 127.65(Average Objective).
July Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 145.20(Prev Close), the market ended December at 139.05(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 139.05(Month Low) to 152.15(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, KCN went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 139.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 129.94(Average Objective).
July Sugar #11(ICE): The SBN0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 20.61(Prev Close), the market ended December at 23.02(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 20.53(Month Low) to 23.09(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SBN went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should exceed 23.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 26.68(Average Objective).
July Cocoa(ICE): The CCN0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 3283(Prev Close), the market ended December at 3307(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 3247(Month Low) to 3512(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CCN went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCN should exceed 3512(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 3882(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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