 |
MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary |
|
ScenarioSM Summary Nov 30, 2009 |
Historical Data |
Scenario Data |
Current Market Data |
Mkt |
Cond |
Month |
Prev Close |
Month High |
Month Low |
Month Close |
Pct Range |
Total Years |
Cond Years |
Action Years |
Pct |
Scenario Objective |
Average Objective |
Last Price |
#DJ |
Higher |
Nov |
9713.00 |
10496.00 |
9679.00 |
10345.00 |
82% |
45 |
28 |
26 |
93% |
10496.00 |
11041.68 |
10345.00 |
#TRAN |
Higher |
Nov |
3613.30 |
4059.90 |
3546.50 |
3937.90 |
76% |
39 |
27 |
23 |
85% |
4059.90 |
4398.39 |
3937.90 |
#OEX |
Higher |
Nov |
482.30 |
517.90 |
479.00 |
510.75 |
82% |
26 |
17 |
17 |
100% |
517.90 |
543.56 |
510.75 |
#NDX |
Higher |
Nov |
1667.10 |
1814.30 |
1652.40 |
1767.40 |
71% |
23 |
14 |
14 |
100% |
1814.30 |
1987.55 |
1767.40 |
#RUT |
Higher |
Nov |
562.75 |
605.45 |
553.30 |
579.75 |
51% |
30 |
19 |
18 |
95% |
605.45 |
641.48 |
579.75 |
#MID |
Higher |
Nov |
659.15 |
713.75 |
651.80 |
684.75 |
53% |
28 |
18 |
17 |
94% |
713.75 |
750.58 |
684.75 |
#VLE |
Higher |
Nov |
2035.30 |
2195.50 |
2005.40 |
2111.40 |
56% |
26 |
17 |
17 |
100% |
2195.50 |
2305.22 |
2111.40 |
#SP |
Higher |
Nov |
1036.20 |
1113.70 |
1029.40 |
1095.65 |
79% |
45 |
29 |
26 |
90% |
1113.70 |
1172.69 |
1095.65 |
SPH0 |
Higher |
Nov |
1028.00 |
1106.30 |
1021.00 |
1089.90 |
81% |
27 |
18 |
18 |
100% |
1106.30 |
1157.58 |
1089.90 |
NDH0 |
Higher |
Nov |
1663.50 |
1806.30 |
1663.00 |
1765.00 |
71% |
13 |
10 |
10 |
100% |
1806.30 |
1959.87 |
1765.00 |
USH0 |
Higher |
Nov |
119~16 |
123~00 |
116~16 |
122~21 |
95% |
32 |
24 |
21 |
88% |
123~00 |
127~18 |
122~21 |
TYH0 |
Higher |
Nov |
117~075 |
120~150 |
116~065 |
119~290 |
87% |
27 |
15 |
15 |
100% |
120~150 |
123~167 |
119~290 |
EDH0 |
Higher |
Nov |
99.495 |
99.680 |
99.475 |
99.615 |
68% |
27 |
13 |
11 |
85% |
99.680 |
100.486 |
99.615 |
EDM0 |
Higher |
Nov |
99.205 |
99.535 |
99.165 |
99.475 |
84% |
27 |
14 |
13 |
93% |
99.535 |
100.311 |
99.475 |
JYH0 |
Lower |
Nov |
111.21 |
117.89 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0% |
33 |
18 |
16 |
89% |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
GCJ0 |
Higher |
Nov |
1042.5 |
1197.5 |
1045.0 |
1183.6 |
91% |
34 |
17 |
15 |
88% |
1197.5 |
1263.7 |
1183.6 |
SIK0 |
Higher |
Nov |
1630.1 |
1894.5 |
1635.5 |
1854.5 |
85% |
45 |
19 |
16 |
84% |
1894.5 |
2184.1 |
1854.5 |
PAH0 |
Higher |
Nov |
324.30 |
379.95 |
320.75 |
366.20 |
77% |
31 |
15 |
13 |
87% |
379.95 |
443.75 |
366.20 |
HOH0 |
Lower |
Nov |
207.81 |
217.92 |
2.07 |
2.10 |
0% |
30 |
18 |
18 |
100% |
2.07 |
1.84 |
2.10 |
HOJ0 |
Lower |
Nov |
208.30 |
218.50 |
2.07 |
2.12 |
0% |
29 |
18 |
18 |
100% |
2.07 |
1.83 |
2.12 |
NGH0 |
Lower |
Nov |
5.425 |
5.477 |
4.696 |
4.989 |
38% |
19 |
14 |
12 |
86% |
4.696 |
3.825 |
4.989 |
NGJ0 |
Lower |
Nov |
5.417 |
5.450 |
4.738 |
5.029 |
41% |
19 |
14 |
12 |
86% |
4.738 |
4.029 |
5.029 |
LEJ0 |
Higher |
Nov |
66.800 |
71.135 |
65.600 |
70.550 |
89% |
40 |
27 |
23 |
85% |
71.135 |
75.601 |
70.550 |
PBG0 |
Lower |
Nov |
89.300 |
89.730 |
83.200 |
86.050 |
44% |
44 |
17 |
15 |
88% |
83.200 |
73.393 |
86.050 |
KCH0 |
Higher |
Nov |
138.55 |
146.85 |
133.05 |
142.00 |
65% |
36 |
19 |
16 |
84% |
146.85 |
166.95 |
142.00 |
LBH0 |
Higher |
Nov |
227.0 |
265.5 |
222.3 |
265.5 |
100% |
36 |
26 |
22 |
85% |
265.5 |
290.8 |
265.5 |
- DJIA Index
- The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 9713.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 10345.00(Month Close),
that being 82%(Pct Range) off of
9679.00(Month Low) to 10496.00(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed
higher in November than October in 28(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 10496.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move
toward 11041.68(Average Objective).
- Dow Jones Transportation
- The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 3613.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 3937.90(Month Close),
that being 76%(Pct Range) off of
3546.50(Month Low) to 4059.90(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed
higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 27, the #TRAN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4059.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move
toward 4398.39(Average Objective).
- S & P 100(OEX)
- The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 482.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 510.75(Month Close),
that being 82%(Pct Range) off of
479.00(Month Low) to 517.90(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed
higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, the #OEX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 517.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 543.56(Average Objective).
- NASDAQ 100 Index
- The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 1667.10(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1767.40(Month Close),
that being 71%(Pct Range) off of
1652.40(Month Low) to 1814.30(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed
higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, the #NDX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1814.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move
toward 1987.55(Average Objective).
- Russell 2000 Index
- The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 562.75(Prev Close), the market ended November at 579.75(Month Close),
that being 51%(Pct Range) off of
553.30(Month Low) to 605.45(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed
higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, the #RUT went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 605.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 641.48(Average Objective).
- S & P Midcap 400 Index
- The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 659.15(Prev Close), the market ended November at 684.75(Month Close),
that being 53%(Pct Range) off of
651.80(Month Low) to 713.75(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed
higher in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, the #MID went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 713.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 750.58(Average Objective).
- Value Line Index
- The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 2035.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2111.40(Month Close),
that being 56%(Pct Range) off of
2005.40(Month Low) to 2195.50(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed
higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, the #VLE went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2195.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 2305.22(Average Objective).
- S & P 500 Stock Index
- The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 1036.20(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1095.65(Month Close),
that being 79%(Pct Range) off of
1029.40(Month Low) to 1113.70(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed
higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 29, the #SP went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1113.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move
toward 1172.69(Average Objective).
- March S & P 500(CME)
- The SPH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 1028.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1089.90(Month Close),
that being 81%(Pct Range) off of
1021.00(Month Low) to 1106.30(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed
higher in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, SPH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1106.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 1157.58(Average Objective).
- March NASDAQ 100(CME)
- The NDH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 1663.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1765.00(Month Close),
that being 71%(Pct Range) off of
1663.00(Month Low) to 1806.30(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 13 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed
higher in November than October in 10(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 10, NDH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 1806.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move
toward 1959.87(Average Objective).
- March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
- The USH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 119~16(Prev Close), the market ended November at 122~21(Month Close),
that being 95%(Pct Range) off of
116~16(Month Low) to 123~00(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed
higher in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 24, USH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 123~00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 127~18(Average Objective).
- March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
- The TYH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 117~075(Prev Close), the market ended November at 119~290(Month Close),
that being 87%(Pct Range) off of
116~065(Month Low) to 120~150(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed
higher in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 15, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 120~150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move
toward 123~167(Average Objective).
- March Eurodollars(CME)
- The EDH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 99.495(Prev Close), the market ended November at 99.615(Month Close),
that being 68%(Pct Range) off of
99.475(Month Low) to 99.680(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed
higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, EDH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 100.486(Average Objective).
- June Eurodollars(CME)
- The EDM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 99.205(Prev Close), the market ended November at 99.475(Month Close),
that being 84%(Pct Range) off of
99.165(Month Low) to 99.535(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed
higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, EDM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.535(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move
toward 100.311(Average Objective).
- March Japanese Yen(CME)
- The JYH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 111.21(Prev Close), the market ended November at 0.01(Month Close),
that being 0%(Pct Range) off of
0.01(Month Low) to 117.89(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed
lower in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, JYH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 0.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 0.01(Average Objective).
- April Gold(CMX)
- The GCJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 1042.5(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1183.6(Month Close),
that being 91%(Pct Range) off of
1045.0(Month Low) to 1197.5(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed
higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, GCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should exceed 1197.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move
toward 1263.7(Average Objective).
- May Silver(CMX)
- The SIK0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 1630.1(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1854.5(Month Close),
that being 85%(Pct Range) off of
1635.5(Month Low) to 1894.5(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Silver(CMX) also closed
higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, SIK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIK should exceed 1894.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 2184.1(Average Objective).
- March Palladium(NYMEX)
- The PAH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 324.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 366.20(Month Close),
that being 77%(Pct Range) off of
320.75(Month Low) to 379.95(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed
higher in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 15, PAH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 379.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move
toward 443.75(Average Objective).
- March Heating Oil(NYM)
- The HOH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 207.81(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2.10(Month Close),
that being 0%(Pct Range) off of
2.07(Month Low) to 217.92(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed
lower in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, HOH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 2.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 1.84(Average Objective).
- April Heating Oil(NYM)
- The HOJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 208.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2.12(Month Close),
that being 0%(Pct Range) off of
2.07(Month Low) to 218.50(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Heating Oil(NYM) also closed
lower in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, HOJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 2.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 1.83(Average Objective).
- March Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 5.425(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4.989(Month Close),
that being 38%(Pct Range) off of
4.696(Month Low) to 5.477(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
lower in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, NGH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 4.696(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 3.825(Average Objective).
- April Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 5.417(Prev Close), the market ended November at 5.029(Month Close),
that being 41%(Pct Range) off of
4.738(Month Low) to 5.450(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
lower in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, NGJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 4.738(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 4.029(Average Objective).
- April Lean Hogs(CME)
- The LEJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 66.800(Prev Close), the market ended November at 70.550(Month Close),
that being 89%(Pct Range) off of
65.600(Month Low) to 71.135(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed
higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 27, LEJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 71.135(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move
toward 75.601(Average Objective).
- February Pork Bellies(CME)
- The PBG0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 89.300(Prev Close), the market ended November at 86.050(Month Close),
that being 44%(Pct Range) off of
83.200(Month Low) to 89.730(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Pork Bellies(CME) also closed
lower in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, PBG went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBG should penetrate 83.200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move
toward 73.393(Average Objective).
- March Coffee "C"(ICE)
- The KCH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 138.55(Prev Close), the market ended November at 142.00(Month Close),
that being 65%(Pct Range) off of
133.05(Month Low) to 146.85(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed
higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, KCH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should exceed 146.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 166.95(Average Objective).
- March Lumber(CME)
- The LBH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
November(Month). Compared to October's 227.0(Prev Close), the market ended November at 265.5(Month Close),
that being 100%(Pct Range) off of
222.3(Month Low) to 265.5(Month High).
In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed
higher in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 26, LBH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 265.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 290.8(Average Objective).
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