MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary May 31, 2009

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

May

8168.00

8592.00

8099.00

8500.00

81%

86%

8592.00

8985.79

8500.00

#OEX

Higher

May

406.00

431.60

403.10

427.55

86%

89%

431.60

446.88

427.55

#NDX

Higher

May

1394.30

1435.80

1339.80

1435.60

100%

94%

1435.80

1498.22

1435.60

#RUT

Higher

May

487.55

511.80

470.35

501.60

75%

85%

511.80

534.49

501.60

#MID

Higher

May

561.15

589.90

540.85

575.50

71%

89%

589.90

613.82

575.50

#SSNI

Higher

May

8828

9523

8827

9523

100%

86%

9523

9885

9523

NDU9

Higher

May

1392.50

1434.50

1341.80

1433.80

99%

100%

1434.50

1508.27

1433.80

EDU9

Higher

May

99.005

99.420

98.965

99.265

66%

92%

99.420

99.889

99.265

EDZ9

Higher

May

98.805

99.235

98.760

99.060

63%

92%

99.235

99.835

99.060

JYU9

Lower

May

101.52

106.66

0.01

85%

0.01

SIU9

Lower

May

1234.1

1529.0

15.6

86%

15.6

14.3

15.6

RBU9

Higher

May

147.73

187.20

146.49

186.56

98%

85%

187.20

201.65

186.56

SX9

Higher

May

943.50

1065.00

935.00

1062.50

98%

95%

1065.00

1199.55

1062.50

SMZ9

Higher

May

276.00

326.60

272.00

323.00

93%

85%

326.60

371.14

323.00

LCV9

Higher

May

86.385

89.680

86.000

87.700

46%

90%

89.680

93.827

87.700

LCZ9

Higher

May

88.730

91.500

88.250

90.030

55%

86%

91.500

95.168

90.030

LEQ9

Lower

May

68.975

71.635

65.430

65.975

90%

65.430

60.462

65.975

LEV9

Lower

May

62.685

66.950

61.000

61.300

90%

61.000

55.560

61.300

LEZ9

Higher

May

62.685

66.100

61.630

62.850

27%

84%

66.100

71.596

62.850

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 8168.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 8500.00(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 8099.00(Month Low) to 8592.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #DJ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 8592.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 8985.79(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 406.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 427.55(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 403.10(Month Low) to 431.60(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #OEX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 431.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 446.88(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1394.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1435.60(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 1339.80(Month Low) to 1435.80(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #NDX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1435.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 1498.22(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 487.55(Prev Close), the market ended May at 501.60(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 470.35(Month Low) to 511.80(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #RUT went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 511.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 534.49(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 561.15(Prev Close), the market ended May at 575.50(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 540.85(Month Low) to 589.90(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #MID went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 589.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 613.82(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 8828(Prev Close), the market ended May at 9523(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 8827(Month Low) to 9523(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #SSNI went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 9523(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 9885(Average Objective).
September NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1392.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1433.80(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 1341.80(Month Low) to 1434.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 12 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, NDU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDU should exceed 1434.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 1508.27(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(CME): The EDU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 99.005(Prev Close), the market ended May at 99.265(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 98.965(Month Low) to 99.420(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, EDU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should exceed 99.420(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 99.889(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 98.805(Prev Close), the market ended May at 99.060(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 98.760(Month Low) to 99.235(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.235(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 99.835(Average Objective).
September Japanese Yen(CME): The JYU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 101.52(Prev Close), the market ended May at 0.01(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 0.01(Month Low) to 106.66(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JYU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYU should penetrate 0.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 0.01(Average Objective).
September Silver(CMX): The SIU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1234.1(Prev Close), the market ended May at 15.6(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 15.6(Month Low) to 1529.0(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Silver(CMX) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SIU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIU should penetrate 15.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 14.3(Average Objective).
September Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 147.73(Prev Close), the market ended May at 186.56(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 146.49(Month Low) to 187.20(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 187.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 201.65(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 943.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1062.50(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 935.00(Month Low) to 1065.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1065.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1199.55(Average Objective).
December Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 276.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 323.00(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 272.00(Month Low) to 326.60(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SMZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should exceed 326.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 371.14(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 86.385(Prev Close), the market ended May at 87.700(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 86.000(Month Low) to 89.680(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 89.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 93.827(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 88.730(Prev Close), the market ended May at 90.030(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 88.250(Month Low) to 91.500(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 91.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 95.168(Average Objective).
August Lean Hogs(CME): The LEQ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 68.975(Prev Close), the market ended May at 65.975(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 65.430(Month Low) to 71.635(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LEQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should penetrate 65.430(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 60.462(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The LEV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 62.685(Prev Close), the market ended May at 61.300(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 61.000(Month Low) to 66.950(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LEV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should penetrate 61.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 55.560(Average Objective).
December Lean Hogs(CME): The LEZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 62.685(Prev Close), the market ended May at 62.850(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 61.630(Month Low) to 66.100(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LEZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should exceed 66.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 71.596(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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