 |
MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary |
|
ScenarioSM Summary Mar 31, 2009 |
Historical Data |
Scenario Data |
Current Market Data |
Mkt |
Cond |
Month |
Prev Close |
Month High |
Month Low |
Month Close |
Pct Range |
Total Years |
Cond Years |
Action Years |
Pct |
Scenario Objective |
Average Objective |
Last Price |
#DJ |
Higher |
Mar |
7063.00 |
7931.00 |
6470.00 |
7609.00 |
78% |
45 |
28 |
24 |
86% |
7931.00 |
8414.55 |
7609.00 |
#TRAN |
Higher |
Mar |
2499.10 |
2866.40 |
2134.20 |
2684.10 |
75% |
39 |
25 |
21 |
84% |
2866.40 |
3106.61 |
2684.10 |
#UTIL |
Higher |
Mar |
323.97 |
340.82 |
288.66 |
329.37 |
78% |
39 |
20 |
18 |
90% |
340.82 |
355.93 |
329.37 |
#OEX |
Higher |
Mar |
348.20 |
393.10 |
317.35 |
377.35 |
79% |
25 |
16 |
14 |
88% |
393.10 |
413.63 |
377.35 |
#RUT |
Higher |
Mar |
389.00 |
445.30 |
342.55 |
422.75 |
78% |
30 |
20 |
20 |
100% |
445.30 |
467.27 |
422.75 |
#VLE |
Higher |
Mar |
1137.60 |
1372.00 |
992.50 |
1296.90 |
80% |
26 |
18 |
17 |
94% |
1372.00 |
1438.30 |
1296.90 |
#SSNI |
Higher |
Mar |
7568 |
8843 |
7021 |
8110 |
60% |
27 |
15 |
15 |
100% |
8843 |
9318 |
8110 |
JYM9 |
Lower |
Mar |
102.42 |
107.03 |
100.54 |
101.04 |
8% |
32 |
16 |
14 |
88% |
100.54 |
97.30 |
101.04 |
DXM9 |
Lower |
Mar |
88.740 |
90.305 |
83.145 |
85.895 |
38% |
23 |
12 |
12 |
100% |
83.145 |
80.481 |
85.895 |
GCM9 |
Lower |
Mar |
944.5 |
970.0 |
885.0 |
925.0 |
47% |
34 |
22 |
19 |
86% |
885.0 |
844.3 |
925.0 |
CLN9 |
Higher |
Mar |
48.98 |
57.29 |
44.73 |
52.85 |
65% |
25 |
17 |
16 |
94% |
57.29 |
61.77 |
52.85 |
CLQ9 |
Higher |
Mar |
49.82 |
58.40 |
45.65 |
53.93 |
65% |
25 |
18 |
16 |
89% |
58.40 |
63.09 |
53.93 |
HON9 |
Higher |
Mar |
132.53 |
156.14 |
120.21 |
142.34 |
62% |
29 |
21 |
20 |
95% |
156.14 |
170.12 |
142.34 |
HOQ9 |
Higher |
Mar |
135.58 |
158.63 |
123.51 |
145.39 |
62% |
29 |
21 |
20 |
95% |
158.63 |
172.37 |
145.39 |
RBN9 |
Higher |
Mar |
135.85 |
156.37 |
126.00 |
143.89 |
59% |
23 |
18 |
16 |
89% |
156.37 |
170.65 |
143.89 |
RBQ9 |
Higher |
Mar |
135.20 |
156.67 |
124.93 |
144.45 |
61% |
23 |
18 |
17 |
94% |
156.67 |
169.42 |
144.45 |
NGN9 |
Lower |
Mar |
4.545 |
4.721 |
3.930 |
4.061 |
17% |
18 |
4 |
4 |
100% |
3.930 |
3.572 |
4.061 |
NGQ9 |
Lower |
Mar |
4.626 |
4.820 |
4.030 |
4.161 |
17% |
18 |
4 |
4 |
100% |
4.030 |
3.721 |
4.161 |
SX9 |
Higher |
Mar |
827.50 |
914.75 |
784.00 |
892.00 |
83% |
45 |
23 |
20 |
87% |
914.75 |
964.04 |
892.00 |
BON9 |
Higher |
Mar |
31.44 |
34.05 |
30.00 |
33.92 |
97% |
45 |
22 |
20 |
91% |
34.05 |
37.47 |
33.92 |
BOQ9 |
Higher |
Mar |
31.60 |
34.15 |
30.00 |
34.08 |
98% |
45 |
24 |
21 |
88% |
34.15 |
37.67 |
34.08 |
CN9 |
Higher |
Mar |
368.50 |
416.00 |
354.75 |
414.75 |
98% |
45 |
23 |
21 |
91% |
416.00 |
439.91 |
414.75 |
CU9 |
Higher |
Mar |
377.75 |
425.00 |
363.50 |
424.00 |
98% |
45 |
27 |
25 |
93% |
425.00 |
452.10 |
424.00 |
KWU9 |
Higher |
Mar |
577.75 |
632.00 |
559.50 |
595.50 |
50% |
32 |
13 |
11 |
85% |
632.00 |
683.00 |
595.50 |
KWZ9 |
Higher |
Mar |
592.25 |
648.00 |
573.50 |
611.25 |
51% |
31 |
13 |
11 |
85% |
648.00 |
695.88 |
611.25 |
OZ9 |
Higher |
Mar |
225.50 |
235.25 |
214.00 |
226.00 |
56% |
33 |
16 |
14 |
88% |
235.25 |
253.84 |
226.00 |
RRU9 |
Higher |
Mar |
12.11 |
12.62 |
11.40 |
12.12 |
59% |
22 |
12 |
11 |
92% |
12.62 |
13.82 |
12.12 |
LCM9 |
Lower |
Mar |
83.900 |
83.835 |
79.975 |
81.700 |
45% |
44 |
20 |
18 |
90% |
79.975 |
74.371 |
81.700 |
LCQ9 |
Lower |
Mar |
84.230 |
84.900 |
80.950 |
82.450 |
38% |
44 |
20 |
18 |
90% |
80.950 |
76.512 |
82.450 |
FCQ9 |
Lower |
Mar |
98.700 |
100.030 |
95.000 |
96.835 |
36% |
36 |
19 |
16 |
84% |
95.000 |
89.483 |
96.835 |
- DJIA Index
- The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 7063.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 7609.00(Month Close),
that being 78%(Pct Range) off of
6470.00(Month Low) to 7931.00(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed
higher in March than February in 28(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 7931.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move
toward 8414.55(Average Objective).
- Dow Jones Transportation
- The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 2499.10(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2684.10(Month Close),
that being 75%(Pct Range) off of
2134.20(Month Low) to 2866.40(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed
higher in March than February in 25(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 25, the #TRAN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 2866.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 3106.61(Average Objective).
- Dow Jones Utilities
- The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 323.97(Prev Close), the market ended March at 329.37(Month Close),
that being 78%(Pct Range) off of
288.66(Month Low) to 340.82(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed
higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, the #UTIL went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 340.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 355.93(Average Objective).
- S & P 100(OEX)
- The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 348.20(Prev Close), the market ended March at 377.35(Month Close),
that being 79%(Pct Range) off of
317.35(Month Low) to 393.10(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed
higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, the #OEX went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 393.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move
toward 413.63(Average Objective).
- Russell 2000 Index
- The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 389.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 422.75(Month Close),
that being 78%(Pct Range) off of
342.55(Month Low) to 445.30(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed
higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, the #RUT went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 445.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move
toward 467.27(Average Objective).
- Value Line Index
- The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 1137.60(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1296.90(Month Close),
that being 80%(Pct Range) off of
992.50(Month Low) to 1372.00(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed
higher in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, the #VLE went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 1372.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 1438.30(Average Objective).
- Nikkei 225 Index
- The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 7568(Prev Close), the market ended March at 8110(Month Close),
that being 60%(Pct Range) off of
7021(Month Low) to 8843(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed
higher in March than February in 15(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 15, the #SSNI went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 8843(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move
toward 9318(Average Objective).
- June Japanese Yen(CME)
- The JYM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 102.42(Prev Close), the market ended March at 101.04(Month Close),
that being 8%(Pct Range) off of
100.54(Month Low) to 107.03(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed
lower in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, JYM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should penetrate 100.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move
toward 97.30(Average Objective).
- June US Dollar Index(ICE)
- The DXM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 88.740(Prev Close), the market ended March at 85.895(Month Close),
that being 38%(Pct Range) off of
83.145(Month Low) to 90.305(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed
lower in March than February in 12(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 12, DXM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should penetrate 83.145(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 80.481(Average Objective).
- June Gold(CMX)
- The GCM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 944.5(Prev Close), the market ended March at 925.0(Month Close),
that being 47%(Pct Range) off of
885.0(Month Low) to 970.0(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gold(CMX) also closed
lower in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, GCM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCM should penetrate 885.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 844.3(Average Objective).
- July Crude Oil(NYM)
- The CLN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 48.98(Prev Close), the market ended March at 52.85(Month Close),
that being 65%(Pct Range) off of
44.73(Month Low) to 57.29(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed
higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, CLN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 57.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 61.77(Average Objective).
- August Crude Oil(NYM)
- The CLQ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 49.82(Prev Close), the market ended March at 53.93(Month Close),
that being 65%(Pct Range) off of
45.65(Month Low) to 58.40(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed
higher in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, CLQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 58.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 63.09(Average Objective).
- July Heating Oil(NYM)
- The HON9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 132.53(Prev Close), the market ended March at 142.34(Month Close),
that being 62%(Pct Range) off of
120.21(Month Low) to 156.14(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Heating Oil(NYM) also closed
higher in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 21, HON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should exceed 156.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move
toward 170.12(Average Objective).
- August Heating Oil(NYM)
- The HOQ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 135.58(Prev Close), the market ended March at 145.39(Month Close),
that being 62%(Pct Range) off of
123.51(Month Low) to 158.63(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Heating Oil(NYM) also closed
higher in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 21, HOQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOQ should exceed 158.63(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move
toward 172.37(Average Objective).
- July Gasoline(NYMEX)
- The RBN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 135.85(Prev Close), the market ended March at 143.89(Month Close),
that being 59%(Pct Range) off of
126.00(Month Low) to 156.37(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed
higher in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, RBN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBN should exceed 156.37(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 170.65(Average Objective).
- August Gasoline(NYMEX)
- The RBQ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 135.20(Prev Close), the market ended March at 144.45(Month Close),
that being 61%(Pct Range) off of
124.93(Month Low) to 156.67(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed
higher in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, RBQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBQ should exceed 156.67(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 169.42(Average Objective).
- July Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 4.545(Prev Close), the market ended March at 4.061(Month Close),
that being 17%(Pct Range) off of
3.930(Month Low) to 4.721(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
lower in March than February in 4(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 4, NGN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should penetrate 3.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move
toward 3.572(Average Objective).
- August Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGQ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 4.626(Prev Close), the market ended March at 4.161(Month Close),
that being 17%(Pct Range) off of
4.030(Month Low) to 4.820(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
lower in March than February in 4(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 4, NGQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should penetrate 4.030(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move
toward 3.721(Average Objective).
- November Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SX9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 827.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 892.00(Month Close),
that being 83%(Pct Range) off of
784.00(Month Low) to 914.75(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
higher in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, SX went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 914.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move
toward 964.04(Average Objective).
- July Soybean Oil(CBOT)
- The BON9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 31.44(Prev Close), the market ended March at 33.92(Month Close),
that being 97%(Pct Range) off of
30.00(Month Low) to 34.05(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed
higher in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, BON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should exceed 34.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move
toward 37.47(Average Objective).
- August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
- The BOQ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 31.60(Prev Close), the market ended March at 34.08(Month Close),
that being 98%(Pct Range) off of
30.00(Month Low) to 34.15(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed
higher in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 24, BOQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should exceed 34.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 37.67(Average Objective).
- July Corn(CBOT)
- The CN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 368.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 414.75(Month Close),
that being 98%(Pct Range) off of
354.75(Month Low) to 416.00(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed
higher in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, CN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 416.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 439.91(Average Objective).
- September Corn(CBOT)
- The CU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 377.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 424.00(Month Close),
that being 98%(Pct Range) off of
363.50(Month Low) to 425.00(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed
higher in March than February in 27(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 27, CU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should exceed 425.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move
toward 452.10(Average Objective).
- September Wheat(KCBT)
- The KWU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 577.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 595.50(Month Close),
that being 50%(Pct Range) off of
559.50(Month Low) to 632.00(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed
higher in March than February in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, KWU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should exceed 632.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 683.00(Average Objective).
- December Wheat(KCBT)
- The KWZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 592.25(Prev Close), the market ended March at 611.25(Month Close),
that being 51%(Pct Range) off of
573.50(Month Low) to 648.00(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed
higher in March than February in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, KWZ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should exceed 648.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 695.88(Average Objective).
- December Oats(CBOT)
- The OZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 225.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 226.00(Month Close),
that being 56%(Pct Range) off of
214.00(Month Low) to 235.25(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed
higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, OZ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should exceed 235.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move
toward 253.84(Average Objective).
- September Rough Rice(CBOT)
- The RRU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 12.11(Prev Close), the market ended March at 12.12(Month Close),
that being 59%(Pct Range) off of
11.40(Month Low) to 12.62(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed
higher in March than February in 12(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 12, RRU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should exceed 12.62(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 13.82(Average Objective).
- June Live Cattle(CME)
- The LCM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 83.900(Prev Close), the market ended March at 81.700(Month Close),
that being 45%(Pct Range) off of
79.975(Month Low) to 83.835(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed
lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, LCM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should penetrate 79.975(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 74.371(Average Objective).
- August Live Cattle(CME)
- The LCQ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 84.230(Prev Close), the market ended March at 82.450(Month Close),
that being 38%(Pct Range) off of
80.950(Month Low) to 84.900(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed
lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, LCQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should penetrate 80.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 76.512(Average Objective).
- August Feeder Cattle(CME)
- The FCQ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
March(Month). Compared to February's 98.700(Prev Close), the market ended March at 96.835(Month Close),
that being 36%(Pct Range) off of
95.000(Month Low) to 100.030(Month High).
In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed
lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, FCQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCQ should penetrate 95.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 89.483(Average Objective).
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