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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary |
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| ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2008 |
| Historical Data |
Scenario Data |
Current Market Data |
Mkt |
Cond |
Month |
Prev
Close |
Month
High |
Month
Low |
Month
Close |
Pct
Range |
Total
Years |
Cond
Years |
Action
Years |
Pct |
Scenario
Objective |
Average
Objective |
Last
Price |
| #DJ |
Higher |
Aug |
11378.00 |
11867.00 |
11222.00 |
11544.00 |
50% |
45 |
26 |
22 |
85% |
11867.00 |
12337.10 |
11544.00 |
| #NDX |
Higher |
Aug |
1849.20 |
1973.60 |
1802.10 |
1872.50 |
41% |
22 |
13 |
12 |
92% |
1973.60 |
2094.15 |
1872.50 |
| #COMPX |
Higher |
Aug |
2325.60 |
2453.70 |
2285.60 |
2411.60 |
75% |
13 |
7 |
7 |
100% |
Yes |
2618.68 |
2411.60 |
| #RUT |
Higher |
Aug |
714.50 |
764.40 |
700.20 |
739.30 |
61% |
29 |
17 |
16 |
94% |
764.40 |
796.76 |
739.30 |
| #VLE |
Higher |
Aug |
2033.20 |
2159.80 |
1995.10 |
2129.60 |
82% |
25 |
14 |
12 |
86% |
Yes |
2215.84 |
2129.60 |
| NDZ8 |
Higher |
Aug |
1862.50 |
1974.80 |
1820.80 |
1882.50 |
40% |
12 |
6 |
6 |
100% |
1974.80 |
2126.27 |
1882.50 |
| USZ8 |
Higher |
Aug |
114~17 |
118~09 |
113~11 |
117~05 |
77% |
30 |
19 |
18 |
95% |
118~09 |
122~31 |
117~05 |
| TYZ8 |
Higher |
Aug |
113~180 |
115~300 |
112~280 |
115~130 |
83% |
26 |
18 |
17 |
94% |
115~300 |
119~119 |
115~130 |
| EDZ8 |
Higher |
Aug |
97.005 |
97.055 |
96.895 |
97.025 |
81% |
26 |
19 |
17 |
89% |
97.055 |
97.674 |
97.025 |
| EDH9 |
Higher |
Aug |
96.915 |
97.105 |
96.790 |
97.040 |
79% |
26 |
17 |
17 |
100% |
97.105 |
97.717 |
97.040 |
| NGZ8 |
Lower |
Aug |
9.984 |
10.290 |
8.565 |
8.788 |
13% |
18 |
7 |
7 |
100% |
8.565 |
7.865 |
8.788 |
| NGF9 |
Lower |
Aug |
10.199 |
10.469 |
8.810 |
9.018 |
13% |
18 |
8 |
7 |
88% |
8.810 |
8.180 |
9.018 |
| JOX8 |
Higher |
Aug |
110.55 |
118.60 |
99.65 |
112.65 |
69% |
41 |
23 |
21 |
91% |
118.60 |
131.88 |
112.65 |
| SBV8 |
Lower |
Aug |
13.93 |
14.69 |
12.70 |
12.80 |
5% |
44 |
28 |
25 |
89% |
12.70 |
10.34 |
12.80 |
- DJIA Index
- The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 11378.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 11544.00(Month Close),
that being 50%(Pct Range) off of
11222.00(Month Low) to 11867.00(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed
higher in August than July in 26(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 11867.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 12337.10(Average Objective).
- NASDAQ 100 Index
- The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 1849.20(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1872.50(Month Close),
that being 41%(Pct Range) off of
1802.10(Month Low) to 1973.60(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed
higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, the #NDX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1973.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 2094.15(Average Objective).
- NASDAQ Composite Index
- The #COMPX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 2325.60(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2411.60(Month Close),
that being 75%(Pct Range) off of
2285.60(Month Low) to 2453.70(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 13 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ Composite Index also closed
higher in August than July in 7(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 7, the #COMPX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #COMPX should exceed 2453.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move
toward 2618.68(Average Objective).
- Russell 2000 Index
- The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 714.50(Prev Close), the market ended August at 739.30(Month Close),
that being 61%(Pct Range) off of
700.20(Month Low) to 764.40(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed
higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, the #RUT went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 764.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 796.76(Average Objective).
- Value Line Index
- The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 2033.20(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2129.60(Month Close),
that being 82%(Pct Range) off of
1995.10(Month Low) to 2159.80(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed
higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, the #VLE went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2159.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 2215.84(Average Objective).
- December NASDAQ 100(CME)
- The NDZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 1862.50(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1882.50(Month Close),
that being 40%(Pct Range) off of
1820.80(Month Low) to 1974.80(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 12 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed
higher in August than July in 6(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 6, NDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDZ should exceed 1974.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move
toward 2126.27(Average Objective).
- December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
- The USZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 114~17(Prev Close), the market ended August at 117~05(Month Close),
that being 77%(Pct Range) off of
113~11(Month Low) to 118~09(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed
higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 118~09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 122~31(Average Objective).
- December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
- The TYZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 113~180(Prev Close), the market ended August at 115~130(Month Close),
that being 83%(Pct Range) off of
112~280(Month Low) to 115~300(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed
higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 115~300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 119~119(Average Objective).
- December Eurodollars(CME)
- The EDZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 97.005(Prev Close), the market ended August at 97.025(Month Close),
that being 81%(Pct Range) off of
96.895(Month Low) to 97.055(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed
higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 97.055(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 97.674(Average Objective).
- March Eurodollars(CME)
- The EDH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 96.915(Prev Close), the market ended August at 97.040(Month Close),
that being 79%(Pct Range) off of
96.790(Month Low) to 97.105(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed
higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 97.105(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 97.717(Average Objective).
- December Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 9.984(Prev Close), the market ended August at 8.788(Month Close),
that being 13%(Pct Range) off of
8.565(Month Low) to 10.290(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
lower in August than July in 7(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 7, NGZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 8.565(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move
toward 7.865(Average Objective).
- January Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGF9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 10.199(Prev Close), the market ended August at 9.018(Month Close),
that being 13%(Pct Range) off of
8.810(Month Low) to 10.469(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
lower in August than July in 8(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 8, NGF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 8.810(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move
toward 8.180(Average Objective).
- November Orange Juice(ICE)
- The JOX8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 110.55(Prev Close), the market ended August at 112.65(Month Close),
that being 69%(Pct Range) off of
99.65(Month Low) to 118.60(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Orange Juice(ICE) also closed
higher in August than July in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, JOX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOX should exceed 118.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 131.88(Average Objective).
- October Sugar #11(ICE)
- The SBV8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 13.93(Prev Close), the market ended August at 12.80(Month Close),
that being 5%(Pct Range) off of
12.70(Month Low) to 14.69(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed
lower in August than July in 28(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 28, SBV went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should penetrate 12.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move
toward 10.34(Average Objective).
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