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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary |
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| ScenarioSM Summary Jul 31, 2008 |
| Historical Data |
Scenario Data |
Current Market Data |
Mkt |
Cond |
Month |
Prev
Close |
Month
High |
Month
Low |
Month
Close |
Pct
Range |
Total
Years |
Cond
Years |
Action
Years |
Pct |
Scenario
Objective |
Average
Objective |
Last
Price |
| #NDX |
Higher |
Jul |
1837.10 |
1874.80 |
1761.10 |
1849.20 |
77% |
22 |
10 |
9 |
90% |
1874.80 |
1988.01 |
1849.20 |
| #COMPX |
Higher |
Jul |
2293.00 |
2329.70 |
2212.90 |
2325.60 |
96% |
13 |
4 |
4 |
100% |
2329.70 |
2447.78 |
2325.60 |
| #RUT |
Higher |
Jul |
689.65 |
726.25 |
647.35 |
714.50 |
85% |
29 |
13 |
12 |
92% |
726.25 |
763.89 |
714.50 |
| #VLE |
Higher |
Jul |
1994.60 |
2085.70 |
1839.20 |
2033.20 |
79% |
25 |
12 |
11 |
92% |
2085.70 |
2164.10 |
2033.20 |
| USZ8 |
Lower |
Jul |
114~20 |
116~18 |
112~16 |
114~17 |
50% |
30 |
14 |
12 |
86% |
112~16 |
108~08 |
114~17 |
| TYZ8 |
Higher |
Jul |
112~210 |
114~160 |
111~230 |
113~180 |
66% |
26 |
16 |
16 |
100% |
114~160 |
117~271 |
113~180 |
| EDZ8 |
Higher |
Jul |
96.820 |
97.090 |
96.695 |
97.005 |
78% |
26 |
16 |
16 |
100% |
97.090 |
97.613 |
97.005 |
| EDH9 |
Higher |
Jul |
96.680 |
97.090 |
96.550 |
96.915 |
68% |
26 |
15 |
13 |
87% |
97.090 |
97.798 |
96.915 |
| PAZ8 |
Lower |
Jul |
468.00 |
475.30 |
372.55 |
386.85 |
14% |
30 |
13 |
11 |
85% |
372.55 |
335.90 |
386.85 |
| NGZ8 |
Lower |
Jul |
14.110 |
14.323 |
9.735 |
9.984 |
5% |
18 |
8 |
7 |
88% |
9.735 |
8.805 |
9.984 |
| WZ8 |
Lower |
Jul |
881.75 |
915.00 |
799.00 |
808.75 |
8% |
45 |
22 |
19 |
86% |
799.00 |
746.50 |
808.75 |
| KWH9 |
Lower |
Jul |
942.00 |
957.00 |
854.00 |
863.00 |
9% |
32 |
15 |
13 |
87% |
854.00 |
801.41 |
863.00 |
| MWZ8 |
Lower |
Jul |
965.00 |
964.00 |
867.00 |
880.00 |
13% |
27 |
13 |
12 |
92% |
867.00 |
812.46 |
880.00 |
| FCU8 |
Higher |
Jul |
113.550 |
115.800 |
111.000 |
115.335 |
90% |
36 |
22 |
19 |
86% |
115.800 |
121.739 |
115.335 |
| FCV8 |
Higher |
Jul |
114.680 |
117.300 |
112.200 |
116.430 |
83% |
36 |
22 |
19 |
86% |
117.300 |
122.488 |
116.430 |
| LEV8 |
Higher |
Jul |
69.450 |
75.150 |
68.400 |
74.350 |
88% |
38 |
21 |
19 |
90% |
75.150 |
81.106 |
74.350 |
| CTV8 |
Lower |
Jul |
75.48 |
75.38 |
68.00 |
71.65 |
49% |
45 |
25 |
23 |
92% |
68.00 |
63.12 |
71.65 |
| CTH9 |
Lower |
Jul |
84.05 |
84.33 |
76.00 |
79.89 |
47% |
44 |
24 |
21 |
88% |
76.00 |
71.21 |
79.89 |
- NASDAQ 100 Index
- The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 1837.10(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1849.20(Month Close),
that being 77%(Pct Range) off of
1761.10(Month Low) to 1874.80(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed
higher in July than June in 10(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 10, the #NDX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1874.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move
toward 1988.01(Average Objective).
- NASDAQ Composite Index
- The #COMPX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 2293.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2325.60(Month Close),
that being 96%(Pct Range) off of
2212.90(Month Low) to 2329.70(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 13 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ Composite Index also closed
higher in July than June in 4(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 4, the #COMPX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #COMPX should exceed 2329.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move
toward 2447.78(Average Objective).
- Russell 2000 Index
- The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 689.65(Prev Close), the market ended July at 714.50(Month Close),
that being 85%(Pct Range) off of
647.35(Month Low) to 726.25(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed
higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, the #RUT went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 726.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 763.89(Average Objective).
- Value Line Index
- The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 1994.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2033.20(Month Close),
that being 79%(Pct Range) off of
1839.20(Month Low) to 2085.70(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed
higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 12, the #VLE went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2085.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 2164.10(Average Objective).
- December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
- The USZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 114~20(Prev Close), the market ended July at 114~17(Month Close),
that being 50%(Pct Range) off of
112~16(Month Low) to 116~18(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed
lower in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, USZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should penetrate 112~16(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 108~08(Average Objective).
- December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
- The TYZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 112~210(Prev Close), the market ended July at 113~180(Month Close),
that being 66%(Pct Range) off of
111~230(Month Low) to 114~160(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed
higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, TYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 114~160(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 117~271(Average Objective).
- December Eurodollars(CME)
- The EDZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 96.820(Prev Close), the market ended July at 97.005(Month Close),
that being 78%(Pct Range) off of
96.695(Month Low) to 97.090(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed
higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, EDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 97.090(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 97.613(Average Objective).
- March Eurodollars(CME)
- The EDH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 96.680(Prev Close), the market ended July at 96.915(Month Close),
that being 68%(Pct Range) off of
96.550(Month Low) to 97.090(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed
higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 15, EDH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 97.090(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move
toward 97.798(Average Objective).
- December Palladium(NYMEX)
- The PAZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 468.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 386.85(Month Close),
that being 14%(Pct Range) off of
372.55(Month Low) to 475.30(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed
lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, PAZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should penetrate 372.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 335.90(Average Objective).
- December Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 14.110(Prev Close), the market ended July at 9.984(Month Close),
that being 5%(Pct Range) off of
9.735(Month Low) to 14.323(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
lower in July than June in 8(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 8, NGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 9.735(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move
toward 8.805(Average Objective).
- December Wheat(CBOT)
- The WZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 881.75(Prev Close), the market ended July at 808.75(Month Close),
that being 8%(Pct Range) off of
799.00(Month Low) to 915.00(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed
lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, WZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 799.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 746.50(Average Objective).
- March Wheat(KCBT)
- The KWH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 942.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 863.00(Month Close),
that being 9%(Pct Range) off of
854.00(Month Low) to 957.00(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed
lower in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 15, KWH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 854.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move
toward 801.41(Average Objective).
- December Wheat(MGE)
- The MWZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 965.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 880.00(Month Close),
that being 13%(Pct Range) off of
867.00(Month Low) to 964.00(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(MGE) also closed
lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, MWZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWZ should penetrate 867.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 812.46(Average Objective).
- September Feeder Cattle(CME)
- The FCU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 113.550(Prev Close), the market ended July at 115.335(Month Close),
that being 90%(Pct Range) off of
111.000(Month Low) to 115.800(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed
higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, FCU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCU should exceed 115.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 121.739(Average Objective).
- October Feeder Cattle(CME)
- The FCV8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 114.680(Prev Close), the market ended July at 116.430(Month Close),
that being 83%(Pct Range) off of
112.200(Month Low) to 117.300(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed
higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, FCV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCV should exceed 117.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 122.488(Average Objective).
- October Lean Hogs(CME)
- The LEV8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 69.450(Prev Close), the market ended July at 74.350(Month Close),
that being 88%(Pct Range) off of
68.400(Month Low) to 75.150(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed
higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 21, LEV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 75.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 81.106(Average Objective).
- October Cotton(ICE)
- The CTV8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 75.48(Prev Close), the market ended July at 71.65(Month Close),
that being 49%(Pct Range) off of
68.00(Month Low) to 75.38(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed
lower in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 25, CTV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 68.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move
toward 63.12(Average Objective).
- March Cotton(ICE)
- The CTH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
July(Month). Compared to June's 84.05(Prev Close), the market ended July at 79.89(Month Close),
that being 47%(Pct Range) off of
76.00(Month Low) to 84.33(Month High).
In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed
lower in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 24, CTH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should penetrate 76.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 71.21(Average Objective).
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