MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Apr 30, 2008

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Apr

12263.00

13010.00

12267.00

12820.00

74%

85%

13010.00

13412.75

12820.00

#SSNI

Higher

Apr

12526

14003

12522

13850

90%

88%

14003

14450

13850

SPM8

Higher

Apr

1324.00

1407.00

1315.80

1386.00

77%

93%

1407.00

1463.80

1386.00

TYM8

Lower

Apr

118~305

119~030

114~200

115~260

27%

92%

114~200

111~228

115~260

EDU8

Lower

Apr

97.905

97.925

97.005

97.310

33%

100%

97.005

96.600

97.310

ADM8

Higher

Apr

90.41

94.82

89.38

94.11

87%

86%

94.82

98.19

94.11

DXM8

Higher

Apr

72.165

74.550

71.050

72.720

48%

86%

74.550

76.202

72.720

GCQ8

Lower

Apr

925.5

959.5

868.6

869.4

84%

868.6

832.2

869.4

CLQ8

Higher

Apr

100.08

117.27

98.20

111.97

72%

87%

117.27

126.35

111.97

CLU8

Higher

Apr

99.64

116.61

97.93

111.32

72%

88%

116.61

124.62

111.32

NGQ8

Higher

Apr

10.303

11.505

9.550

11.045

76%

90%

11.505

12.975

11.045

NGU8

Higher

Apr

10.313

11.655

9.571

11.065

72%

90%

11.655

13.034

11.065

BOZ8

Higher

Apr

53.13

64.73

50.16

59.34

63%

85%

64.73

70.98

59.34

CZ8

Higher

Apr

581.00

637.50

573.50

628.25

86%

84%

637.50

709.86

628.25

WN8

Lower

Apr

937.00

998.00

797.25

801.00

85%

797.25

740.26

801.00

KWN8

Lower

Apr

980.00

1050.00

837.50

842.00

93%

837.50

794.28

842.00

KWZ8

Lower

Apr

1000.00

1069.00

865.25

873.00

88%

865.25

823.45

873.00

SBN8

Lower

Apr

12.12

13.59

11.71

11.81

84%

11.71

9.89

11.81

LBK8

Lower

Apr

222.1

246.5

208.3

210.3

89%

208.3

188.5

210.3

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 12263.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 12820.00(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 12267.00(Month Low) to 13010.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 13010.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 13412.75(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 12526(Prev Close), the market ended April at 13850(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 12522(Month Low) to 14003(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #SSNI went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 14003(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 14450(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1324.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1386.00(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 1315.80(Month Low) to 1407.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SPM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 1407.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 1463.80(Average Objective).
June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 118~305(Prev Close), the market ended April at 115~260(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 114~200(Month Low) to 119~030(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, TYM went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should penetrate 114~200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 111~228(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(CME): The EDU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 97.905(Prev Close), the market ended April at 97.310(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 97.005(Month Low) to 97.925(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, EDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 97.005(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 96.600(Average Objective).
June Australian Dollar(CME): The ADM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 90.41(Prev Close), the market ended April at 94.11(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 89.38(Month Low) to 94.82(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ADM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADM should exceed 94.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 98.19(Average Objective).
June US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 72.165(Prev Close), the market ended April at 72.720(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 71.050(Month Low) to 74.550(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, DXM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should exceed 74.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 76.202(Average Objective).
August Gold(CMX): The GCQ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 925.5(Prev Close), the market ended April at 869.4(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 868.6(Month Low) to 959.5(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Gold(CMX) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCQ should penetrate 868.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 832.2(Average Objective).
August Crude Oil(NYM): The CLQ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 100.08(Prev Close), the market ended April at 111.97(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 98.20(Month Low) to 117.27(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 117.27(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 126.35(Average Objective).
September Crude Oil(NYM): The CLU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 99.64(Prev Close), the market ended April at 111.32(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 97.93(Month Low) to 116.61(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLU should exceed 116.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 124.62(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 10.303(Prev Close), the market ended April at 11.045(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 9.550(Month Low) to 11.505(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 11.505(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 12.975(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 10.313(Prev Close), the market ended April at 11.065(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 9.571(Month Low) to 11.655(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 11.655(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 13.034(Average Objective).
December Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 53.13(Prev Close), the market ended April at 59.34(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 50.16(Month Low) to 64.73(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, BOZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should exceed 64.73(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 70.98(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 581.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 628.25(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 573.50(Month Low) to 637.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 637.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 709.86(Average Objective).
July Wheat(CBOT): The WN8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 937.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 801.00(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 797.25(Month Low) to 998.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 797.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 740.26(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 980.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 842.00(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 837.50(Month Low) to 1050.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KWN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 837.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 794.28(Average Objective).
December Wheat(KCBT): The KWZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1000.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 873.00(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 865.25(Month Low) to 1069.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, KWZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 865.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 823.45(Average Objective).
July Sugar #11(ICE): The SBN8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 12.12(Prev Close), the market ended April at 11.81(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 11.71(Month Low) to 13.59(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SBN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should penetrate 11.71(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 9.89(Average Objective).
May Lumber(CME): The LBK8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 222.1(Prev Close), the market ended April at 210.3(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 208.3(Month Low) to 246.5(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lumber(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LBK went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBK should penetrate 208.3(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 188.5(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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