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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary |
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| ScenarioSM Summary Jan 31, 2008 |
| Historical Data |
Scenario Data |
Current Market Data |
Mkt |
Cond |
Month |
Prev
Close |
Month
High |
Month
Low |
Month
Close |
Pct
Range |
Total
Years |
Cond
Years |
Action
Years |
Pct |
Scenario
Objective |
Average
Objective |
Last
Price |
| #TRAN |
Higher |
Jan |
4570.60 |
4797.00 |
4032.90 |
4751.90 |
94% |
36 |
23 |
21 |
91% |
4797.00 |
5167.05 |
4751.90 |
| #SP |
Lower |
Jan |
1468.35 |
1471.75 |
1270.05 |
1378.55 |
54% |
45 |
16 |
14 |
88% |
1270.05 |
1206.03 |
1378.55 |
| SPM8 |
Lower |
Jan |
1486.00 |
1475.50 |
1268.00 |
1382.50 |
55% |
25 |
7 |
6 |
86% |
1268.00 |
1209.40 |
1382.50 |
| CDM8 |
Lower |
Jan |
100.96 |
101.01 |
96.83 |
99.31 |
59% |
30 |
19 |
16 |
84% |
96.83 |
94.68 |
99.31 |
| PLJ8 |
Higher |
Jan |
1525.4 |
1739.0 |
1531.0 |
1737.4 |
99% |
39 |
22 |
21 |
95% |
1739.0 |
1888.4 |
1737.4 |
| HGK8 |
Higher |
Jan |
305.20 |
338.00 |
307.50 |
331.60 |
79% |
45 |
27 |
25 |
93% |
338.00 |
381.00 |
331.60 |
| HGN8 |
Higher |
Jan |
305.70 |
337.25 |
307.35 |
331.15 |
80% |
45 |
26 |
24 |
92% |
337.25 |
375.68 |
331.15 |
| NGK8 |
Higher |
Jan |
7.613 |
8.315 |
7.600 |
8.125 |
73% |
17 |
8 |
8 |
100% |
8.315 |
9.547 |
8.125 |
| NGM8 |
Higher |
Jan |
7.703 |
8.385 |
7.724 |
8.203 |
72% |
17 |
8 |
8 |
100% |
8.385 |
9.550 |
8.203 |
| WN8 |
Higher |
Jan |
775.50 |
917.00 |
774.00 |
873.50 |
70% |
45 |
20 |
17 |
85% |
917.00 |
973.70 |
873.50 |
| MWN8 |
Higher |
Jan |
932.00 |
1186.00 |
935.00 |
1095.00 |
64% |
27 |
13 |
11 |
85% |
1186.00 |
1247.57 |
1095.00 |
| CCK8 |
Higher |
Jan |
2038 |
2354 |
2077 |
2354 |
100% |
45 |
14 |
13 |
93% |
2354 |
2561 |
2354 |
| CCN8 |
Higher |
Jan |
2045 |
2374 |
2103 |
2369 |
98% |
45 |
14 |
12 |
86% |
2374 |
2571 |
2369 |
| LBN8 |
Lower |
Jan |
279.5 |
278.0 |
249.5 |
254.5 |
18% |
34 |
13 |
12 |
92% |
249.5 |
233.8 |
254.5 |
- Dow Jones Transportation
- The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 4570.60(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4751.90(Month Close),
that being 94%(Pct Range) off of
4032.90(Month Low) to 4797.00(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed
higher in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, the #TRAN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4797.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 5167.05(Average Objective).
- S & P 500 Stock Index
- The #SP(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 1468.35(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1378.55(Month Close),
that being 54%(Pct Range) off of
1270.05(Month Low) to 1471.75(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed
lower in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, the #SP went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should penetrate 1270.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move
toward 1206.03(Average Objective).
- June S & P 500(CME)
- The SPM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 1486.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1382.50(Month Close),
that being 55%(Pct Range) off of
1268.00(Month Low) to 1475.50(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed
lower in January than December in 7(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 7, SPM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should penetrate 1268.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move
toward 1209.40(Average Objective).
- June Canadian Dollar(CME)
- The CDM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 100.96(Prev Close), the market ended January at 99.31(Month Close),
that being 59%(Pct Range) off of
96.83(Month Low) to 101.01(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed
lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, CDM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDM should penetrate 96.83(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 94.68(Average Objective).
- April Platinum(NYMEX)
- The PLJ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 1525.4(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1737.4(Month Close),
that being 99%(Pct Range) off of
1531.0(Month Low) to 1739.0(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed
higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1739.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 1888.4(Average Objective).
- May Copper(CMX)
- The HGK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 305.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 331.60(Month Close),
that being 79%(Pct Range) off of
307.50(Month Low) to 338.00(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed
higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 27, HGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 338.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move
toward 381.00(Average Objective).
- July Copper(CMX)
- The HGN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 305.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 331.15(Month Close),
that being 80%(Pct Range) off of
307.35(Month Low) to 337.25(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed
higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 26, HGN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should exceed 337.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move
toward 375.68(Average Objective).
- May Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 7.613(Prev Close), the market ended January at 8.125(Month Close),
that being 73%(Pct Range) off of
7.600(Month Low) to 8.315(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
higher in January than December in 8(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 8, NGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should exceed 8.315(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move
toward 9.547(Average Objective).
- June Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 7.703(Prev Close), the market ended January at 8.203(Month Close),
that being 72%(Pct Range) off of
7.724(Month Low) to 8.385(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
higher in January than December in 8(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 8, NGM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should exceed 8.385(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move
toward 9.550(Average Objective).
- July Wheat(CBOT)
- The WN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 775.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 873.50(Month Close),
that being 70%(Pct Range) off of
774.00(Month Low) to 917.00(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed
higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, WN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should exceed 917.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 973.70(Average Objective).
- July Wheat(MGE)
- The MWN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 932.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1095.00(Month Close),
that being 64%(Pct Range) off of
935.00(Month Low) to 1186.00(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(MGE) also closed
higher in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, MWN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWN should exceed 1186.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 1247.57(Average Objective).
- May Cocoa(ICE)
- The CCK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 2038(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2354(Month Close),
that being 100%(Pct Range) off of
2077(Month Low) to 2354(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed
higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, CCK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2354(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move
toward 2561(Average Objective).
- July Cocoa(ICE)
- The CCN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 2045(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2369(Month Close),
that being 98%(Pct Range) off of
2103(Month Low) to 2374(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cocoa(ICE) also closed
higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, CCN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCN should exceed 2374(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 2571(Average Objective).
- July Lumber(CME)
- The LBN8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
January(Month). Compared to December's 279.5(Prev Close), the market ended January at 254.5(Month Close),
that being 18%(Pct Range) off of
249.5(Month Low) to 278.0(Month High).
In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed
lower in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, LBN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 249.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 233.8(Average Objective).
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