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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary |
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| ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2007 |
| Historical Data |
Scenario Data |
Current Market Data |
Mkt |
Cond |
Month |
Prev
Close |
Month
High |
Month
Low |
Month
Close |
Pct
Range |
Total
Years |
Cond
Years |
Action
Years |
Pct |
Scenario
Objective |
Average
Objective |
Last
Price |
| #NDX |
Higher |
Aug |
1932.10 |
1995.00 |
1805.70 |
1988.70 |
97% |
21 |
12 |
11 |
92% |
1995.00 |
2116.39 |
1988.70 |
| #COMPX |
Higher |
Aug |
2546.30 |
2613.00 |
2451.10 |
2596.40 |
90% |
12 |
6 |
6 |
100% |
2613.00 |
2781.95 |
2596.40 |
| #RUT |
Higher |
Aug |
776.10 |
803.50 |
736.00 |
792.85 |
84% |
28 |
16 |
15 |
94% |
803.50 |
837.19 |
792.85 |
| #VLE |
Higher |
Aug |
2315.90 |
2360.80 |
2152.60 |
2326.80 |
84% |
24 |
13 |
11 |
85% |
2360.80 |
2415.35 |
2326.80 |
| NDZ7 |
Higher |
Aug |
1968.80 |
2022.50 |
1877.50 |
2018.30 |
97% |
11 |
5 |
5 |
100% |
2022.50 |
2166.82 |
2018.30 |
| USZ7 |
Higher |
Aug |
109~31 |
111~31 |
108~20 |
111~18 |
88% |
29 |
18 |
17 |
94% |
111~31 |
116~17 |
111~18 |
| TYZ7 |
Higher |
Aug |
107~085 |
109~155 |
106~120 |
109~015 |
86% |
25 |
17 |
16 |
94% |
109~155 |
112~256 |
109~015 |
| EDZ7 |
Higher |
Aug |
94.905 |
95.400 |
94.840 |
95.065 |
40% |
25 |
18 |
17 |
94% |
95.400 |
96.007 |
95.065 |
| EDH8 |
Higher |
Aug |
95.060 |
95.640 |
95.010 |
95.360 |
56% |
25 |
16 |
16 |
100% |
95.640 |
96.257 |
95.360 |
| NGZ7 |
Lower |
Aug |
8.294 |
8.750 |
7.381 |
7.381 |
0% |
17 |
6 |
6 |
100% |
7.381 |
6.719 |
7.381 |
| NGF8 |
Lower |
Aug |
8.694 |
9.115 |
7.775 |
7.798 |
2% |
17 |
7 |
6 |
86% |
7.775 |
7.169 |
7.798 |
| FCF8 |
Higher |
Aug |
114.900 |
116.500 |
112.400 |
115.430 |
74% |
30 |
16 |
15 |
94% |
116.500 |
120.801 |
115.430 |
| KCZ7 |
Lower |
Aug |
118.30 |
126.00 |
115.00 |
115.85 |
8% |
33 |
13 |
11 |
85% |
115.00 |
102.11 |
115.85 |
| KCH8 |
Lower |
Aug |
122.00 |
129.00 |
118.85 |
119.65 |
8% |
33 |
13 |
11 |
85% |
118.85 |
106.27 |
119.65 |
| CCH8 |
Lower |
Aug |
2002 |
2049 |
1775 |
1844 |
25% |
45 |
19 |
17 |
89% |
1775 |
1627 |
1844 |
- NASDAQ 100 Index
- The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 1932.10(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1988.70(Month Close),
that being 97%(Pct Range) off of
1805.70(Month Low) to 1995.00(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed
higher in August than July in 12(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 12, the #NDX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1995.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 2116.39(Average Objective).
- NASDAQ Composite Index
- The #COMPX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 2546.30(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2596.40(Month Close),
that being 90%(Pct Range) off of
2451.10(Month Low) to 2613.00(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 12 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ Composite Index also closed
higher in August than July in 6(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 6, the #COMPX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #COMPX should exceed 2613.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move
toward 2781.95(Average Objective).
- Russell 2000 Index
- The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 776.10(Prev Close), the market ended August at 792.85(Month Close),
that being 84%(Pct Range) off of
736.00(Month Low) to 803.50(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed
higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, the #RUT went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 803.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move
toward 837.19(Average Objective).
- Value Line Index
- The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 2315.90(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2326.80(Month Close),
that being 84%(Pct Range) off of
2152.60(Month Low) to 2360.80(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed
higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, the #VLE went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2360.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 2415.35(Average Objective).
- December NASDAQ 100(CME)
- The NDZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 1968.80(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2018.30(Month Close),
that being 97%(Pct Range) off of
1877.50(Month Low) to 2022.50(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 11 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed
higher in August than July in 5(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 5, NDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 5 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDZ should exceed 2022.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 5 years) a potential move
toward 2166.82(Average Objective).
- December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
- The USZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 109~31(Prev Close), the market ended August at 111~18(Month Close),
that being 88%(Pct Range) off of
108~20(Month Low) to 111~31(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed
higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 111~31(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 116~17(Average Objective).
- December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
- The TYZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 107~085(Prev Close), the market ended August at 109~015(Month Close),
that being 86%(Pct Range) off of
106~120(Month Low) to 109~155(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed
higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 109~155(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 112~256(Average Objective).
- December Eurodollars(CME)
- The EDZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 94.905(Prev Close), the market ended August at 95.065(Month Close),
that being 40%(Pct Range) off of
94.840(Month Low) to 95.400(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed
higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 95.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 96.007(Average Objective).
- March Eurodollars(CME)
- The EDH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 95.060(Prev Close), the market ended August at 95.360(Month Close),
that being 56%(Pct Range) off of
95.010(Month Low) to 95.640(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed
higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 95.640(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 96.257(Average Objective).
- December Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 8.294(Prev Close), the market ended August at 7.381(Month Close),
that being 0%(Pct Range) off of
7.381(Month Low) to 8.750(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
lower in August than July in 6(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 6, NGZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 7.381(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move
toward 6.719(Average Objective).
- January Natural Gas(NYM)
- The NGF8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 8.694(Prev Close), the market ended August at 7.798(Month Close),
that being 2%(Pct Range) off of
7.775(Month Low) to 9.115(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed
lower in August than July in 7(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 7, NGF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 7.775(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move
toward 7.169(Average Objective).
- January Feeder Cattle(CME)
- The FCF8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 114.900(Prev Close), the market ended August at 115.430(Month Close),
that being 74%(Pct Range) off of
112.400(Month Low) to 116.500(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed
higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, FCF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 116.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move
toward 120.801(Average Objective).
- December Coffee "C"(NYBOT)
- The KCZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 118.30(Prev Close), the market ended August at 115.85(Month Close),
that being 8%(Pct Range) off of
115.00(Month Low) to 126.00(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed
lower in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, KCZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should penetrate 115.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 102.11(Average Objective).
- March Coffee "C"(NYBOT)
- The KCH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 122.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 119.65(Month Close),
that being 8%(Pct Range) off of
118.85(Month Low) to 129.00(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed
lower in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, KCH went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 118.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 106.27(Average Objective).
- March Cocoa(NYBOT)
- The CCH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
August(Month). Compared to July's 2002(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1844(Month Close),
that being 25%(Pct Range) off of
1775(Month Low) to 2049(Month High).
In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(NYBOT) also closed
lower in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, CCH went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 1775(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 1627(Average Objective).
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