MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary May 31, 2007

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

May

13063.00

13673.00

13041.00

13628.00

93%

86%

13673.00

14287.80

13628.00

#UTIL

Higher

May

519.25

537.12

507.75

521.79

48%

86%

537.12

565.97

521.79

#OEX

Higher

May

680.60

705.05

679.15

702.35

90%

88%

705.05

730.67

702.35

#NDX

Higher

May

1867.80

1931.10

1857.30

1928.20

96%

93%

1931.10

2016.07

1928.20

#COMPX

Higher

May

2525.10

2604.50

2525.30

2604.50

100%

2604.50

2791.47

2604.50

#MID

Higher

May

873.65

918.35

867.40

916.30

96%

88%

918.35

960.00

916.30

SPU7

Higher

May

1502.40

1551.70

1498.40

1547.90

93%

88%

1551.70

1611.48

1547.90

NDU7

Higher

May

1903.80

1960.00

1905.00

1957.30

95%

100%

1960.00

2079.31

1957.30

SIU7

Lower

May

1370.4

1379.0

1291.0

1360.2

79%

85%

1291.0

1182.2

1360.2

PLV7

Lower

May

1305.4

1357.9

1263.0

1295.5

34%

92%

1263.0

1156.6

1295.5

NGU7

Lower

May

8.191

8.520

7.885

8.118

37%

89%

7.885

6.642

8.118

NGV7

Lower

May

8.301

8.630

8.020

8.240

36%

88%

8.020

6.836

8.240

SX7

Higher

May

770.75

845.00

765.00

836.25

89%

95%

845.00

946.80

836.25

SMZ7

Higher

May

208.20

227.40

207.80

224.50

85%

227.40

255.26

224.50

RRU7

Lower

May

10.63

11.08

10.46

10.61

24%

90%

10.46

9.54

10.61

LEQ7

Lower

May

75.200

75.500

72.450

74.050

52%

89%

72.450

66.803

74.050

LEV7

Lower

May

67.500

64.850

67.150

87%

89%

64.850

58.747

67.150

PBQ7

Lower

May

101.000

103.400

98.250

99.450

23%

89%

98.250

81.537

99.450

SBV7

Lower

May

9.45

9.63

8.88

9.39

68%

84%

8.88

7.30

9.39

CCU7

Higher

May

1825

2004

1786

1909

56%

88%

2004

2210

1909

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 13063.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 13628.00(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 13041.00(Month Low) to 13673.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #DJ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 13673.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 14287.80(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 519.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 521.79(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 507.75(Month Low) to 537.12(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #UTIL went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 537.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 565.97(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 680.60(Prev Close), the market ended May at 702.35(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 679.15(Month Low) to 705.05(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #OEX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 705.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 730.67(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1867.80(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1928.20(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 1857.30(Month Low) to 1931.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #NDX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1931.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2016.07(Average Objective).
NASDAQ Composite Index: The #COMPX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2525.10(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2604.50(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 2525.30(Month Low) to 2604.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 12 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ Composite Index also closed higher in May than April in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, the #COMPX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #COMPX should exceed 2604.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 2791.47(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 873.65(Prev Close), the market ended May at 916.30(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 867.40(Month Low) to 918.35(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #MID went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 918.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 960.00(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1502.40(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1547.90(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 1498.40(Month Low) to 1551.70(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, SPU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 1551.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 1611.48(Average Objective).
September NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1903.80(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1957.30(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 1905.00(Month Low) to 1960.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 10 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, NDU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDU should exceed 1960.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 2079.31(Average Objective).
September Silver(CMX): The SIU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1370.4(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1360.2(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 1291.0(Month Low) to 1379.0(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Silver(CMX) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SIU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIU should penetrate 1291.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1182.2(Average Objective).
October Platinum(NYM): The PLV7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1305.4(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1295.5(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 1263.0(Month Low) to 1357.9(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Platinum(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, PLV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLV should penetrate 1263.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 1156.6(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 8.191(Prev Close), the market ended May at 8.118(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 7.885(Month Low) to 8.520(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should penetrate 7.885(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 6.642(Average Objective).
October Natural Gas(NYM): The NGV7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 8.301(Prev Close), the market ended May at 8.240(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 8.020(Month Low) to 8.630(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NGV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should penetrate 8.020(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 6.836(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 770.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 836.25(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 765.00(Month Low) to 845.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 845.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 946.80(Average Objective).
December Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 208.20(Prev Close), the market ended May at 224.50(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 207.80(Month Low) to 227.40(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SMZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should exceed 227.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 255.26(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 10.63(Prev Close), the market ended May at 10.61(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 10.46(Month Low) to 11.08(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, RRU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 10.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 9.54(Average Objective).
August Lean Hogs(CME): The LEQ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 75.200(Prev Close), the market ended May at 74.050(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 72.450(Month Low) to 75.500(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LEQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should penetrate 72.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 66.803(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The LEV7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 67.500(Prev Close), the market ended May at 67.150(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 64.850(Month Low) to 67.500(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LEV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should penetrate 64.850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 58.747(Average Objective).
August Pork Bellies(CME): The PBQ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 101.000(Prev Close), the market ended May at 99.450(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 98.250(Month Low) to 103.400(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Pork Bellies(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, PBQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBQ should penetrate 98.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 81.537(Average Objective).
October Sugar #11(NYBOT): The SBV7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 9.45(Prev Close), the market ended May at 9.39(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 8.88(Month Low) to 9.63(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(NYBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SBV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should penetrate 8.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 7.30(Average Objective).
September Cocoa(NYBOT): The CCU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1825(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1909(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 1786(Month Low) to 2004(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(NYBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CCU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should exceed 2004(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2210(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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