MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Mar 31, 2007

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Mar

12268.00

12511.00

11940.00

12354.00

73%

86%

12511.00

13275.71

12354.00

#UTIL

Higher

Mar

479.12

505.15

468.64

500.18

86%

89%

505.15

527.22

500.18

#OEX

Higher

Mar

643.55

657.65

624.80

649.90

76%

87%

657.65

691.34

649.90

#RUT

Higher

Mar

793.30

811.05

760.05

800.70

80%

100%

811.05

852.27

800.70

#VLE

Higher

Mar

2278.70

2328.00

2200.30

2303.00

80%

94%

2328.00

2442.41

2303.00

#SSNI

Lower

Mar

17604

17558

16533

17288

74%

90%

16533

15561

17288

SFM7

Lower

Mar

82.88

83.75

81.64

82.83

56%

100%

81.64

78.51

82.83

JYM7

Higher

Mar

85.71

87.82

85.30

85.75

18%

86%

87.82

90.88

85.75

DXM7

Lower

Mar

83.20

84.05

82.38

82.66

17%

100%

82.38

79.56

82.66

GCM7

Lower

Mar

678.8

681.8

641.8

669.0

68%

90%

641.8

613.8

669.0

GCQ7

Lower

Mar

685.0

680.5

647.5

675.2

84%

90%

647.5

619.3

675.2

PLN7

Lower

Mar

1267.4

1264.0

1170.0

1254.8

90%

89%

1170.0

1079.8

1254.8

CLN7

Higher

Mar

64.70

68.73

61.35

68.25

93%

94%

68.73

74.88

68.25

CLQ7

Higher

Mar

65.30

69.28

62.29

68.73

92%

88%

69.28

75.65

68.73

HON7

Higher

Mar

179.76

192.52

169.77

190.14

90%

95%

192.52

210.51

190.14

HOQ7

Higher

Mar

182.01

194.01

172.37

192.19

92%

95%

194.01

211.64

192.19

NGN7

Higher

Mar

7.614

8.100

7.250

8.011

90%

100%

8.100

9.287

8.011

NGQ7

Higher

Mar

7.707

8.200

7.360

8.109

89%

100%

8.200

9.380

8.109

BON7

Higher

Mar

31.15

33.61

30.16

32.92

80%

90%

33.61

36.94

32.92

BOZ7

Higher

Mar

32.23

34.86

31.22

34.13

80%

96%

34.86

37.77

34.13

CZ7

Lower

Mar

420.00

415.50

383.50

89%

383.50

362.10

383.50

MWN7

Lower

Mar

528.75

526.00

486.00

492.25

16%

85%

486.00

465.95

492.25

ON7

Higher

Mar

264.00

299.75

247.00

281.75

66%

92%

299.75

325.45

281.75

RRN7

Lower

Mar

10.80

11.12

10.05

10.43

36%

89%

10.05

9.22

10.43

LCM7

Lower

Mar

95.500

99.825

92.775

94.875

30%

94%

92.775

86.148

94.875

LCQ7

Lower

Mar

92.500

96.075

90.600

92.250

30%

94%

90.600

85.459

92.250

LCV7

Higher

Mar

95.925

99.450

94.525

96.350

37%

90%

99.450

104.090

96.350

FCK7

Higher

Mar

105.950

110.250

105.400

109.975

94%

110.250

116.621

109.975

LEM7

Lower

Mar

78.050

79.050

72.550

75.400

44%

87%

72.550

65.720

75.400

JOU7

Lower

Mar

187.75

192.50

179.50

182.80

25%

88%

179.50

167.15

182.80

KCN7

Lower

Mar

121.25

120.00

111.40

112.20

92%

111.40

102.39

112.20

LBK7

Lower

Mar

261.4

262.0

240.1

240.5

94%

240.1

216.2

240.5

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 12268.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 12354.00(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 11940.00(Month Low) to 12511.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in March than February in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12511.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 13275.71(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 479.12(Prev Close), the market ended March at 500.18(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 468.64(Month Low) to 505.15(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #UTIL went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 505.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 527.22(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 643.55(Prev Close), the market ended March at 649.90(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 624.80(Month Low) to 657.65(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in March than February in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #OEX went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 657.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 691.34(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 793.30(Prev Close), the market ended March at 800.70(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 760.05(Month Low) to 811.05(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #RUT went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 811.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 852.27(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2278.70(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2303.00(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 2200.30(Month Low) to 2328.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #VLE went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2328.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2442.41(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 17604(Prev Close), the market ended March at 17288(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 16533(Month Low) to 17558(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed lower in March than February in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, the #SSNI went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should penetrate 16533(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 15561(Average Objective).
June Swiss Franc(CME): The SFM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 82.88(Prev Close), the market ended March at 82.83(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 81.64(Month Low) to 83.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, SFM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 81.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 78.51(Average Objective).
June Japanese Yen(CME): The JYM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 85.71(Prev Close), the market ended March at 85.75(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 85.30(Month Low) to 87.82(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, JYM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should exceed 87.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 90.88(Average Objective).
June US Dollar Index(NYBOT): The DXM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 83.20(Prev Close), the market ended March at 82.66(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 82.38(Month Low) to 84.05(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(NYBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, DXM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should penetrate 82.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 79.56(Average Objective).
June Gold(CMX): The GCM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 678.8(Prev Close), the market ended March at 669.0(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 641.8(Month Low) to 681.8(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gold(CMX) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, GCM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCM should penetrate 641.8(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 613.8(Average Objective).
August Gold(CMX): The GCQ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 685.0(Prev Close), the market ended March at 675.2(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 647.5(Month Low) to 680.5(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Gold(CMX) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, GCQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCQ should penetrate 647.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 619.3(Average Objective).
July Platinum(NYM): The PLN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1267.4(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1254.8(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 1170.0(Month Low) to 1264.0(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Platinum(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, PLN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLN should penetrate 1170.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1079.8(Average Objective).
July Crude Oil(NYM): The CLN7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 64.70(Prev Close), the market ended March at 68.25(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 61.35(Month Low) to 68.73(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 68.73(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 74.88(Average Objective).
August Crude Oil(NYM): The CLQ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 65.30(Prev Close), the market ended March at 68.73(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 62.29(Month Low) to 69.28(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 69.28(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 75.65(Average Objective).
July Heating Oil(NYM): The HON7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 179.76(Prev Close), the market ended March at 190.14(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 169.77(Month Low) to 192.52(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should exceed 192.52(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 210.51(Average Objective).
August Heating Oil(NYM): The HOQ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 182.01(Prev Close), the market ended March at 192.19(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 172.37(Month Low) to 194.01(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOQ should exceed 194.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 211.64(Average Objective).
July Natural Gas(NYM): The NGN7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 7.614(Prev Close), the market ended March at 8.011(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 7.250(Month Low) to 8.100(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should exceed 8.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 9.287(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 7.707(Prev Close), the market ended March at 8.109(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 7.360(Month Low) to 8.200(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 8.200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 9.380(Average Objective).
July Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BON7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 31.15(Prev Close), the market ended March at 32.92(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 30.16(Month Low) to 33.61(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, BON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should exceed 33.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 36.94(Average Objective).
December Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 32.23(Prev Close), the market ended March at 34.13(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 31.22(Month Low) to 34.86(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, BOZ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should exceed 34.86(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 37.77(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 420.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 383.50(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 383.50(Month Low) to 415.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CZ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 383.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 362.10(Average Objective).
July Wheat(MGE): The MWN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 528.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 492.25(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 486.00(Month Low) to 526.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in March than February in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, MWN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWN should penetrate 486.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 465.95(Average Objective).
July Oats(CBOT): The ON7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 264.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 281.75(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 247.00(Month Low) to 299.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should exceed 299.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 325.45(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 10.80(Prev Close), the market ended March at 10.43(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 10.05(Month Low) to 11.12(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, RRN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 10.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 9.22(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 95.500(Prev Close), the market ended March at 94.875(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 92.775(Month Low) to 99.825(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LCM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should penetrate 92.775(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 86.148(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 92.500(Prev Close), the market ended March at 92.250(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 90.600(Month Low) to 96.075(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LCQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should penetrate 90.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 85.459(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 95.925(Prev Close), the market ended March at 96.350(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 94.525(Month Low) to 99.450(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCV went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 99.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 104.090(Average Objective).
May Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 105.950(Prev Close), the market ended March at 109.975(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 105.400(Month Low) to 110.250(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, FCK went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 110.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 116.621(Average Objective).
June Lean Hogs(CME): The LEM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 78.050(Prev Close), the market ended March at 75.400(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 72.550(Month Low) to 79.050(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LEM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEM should penetrate 72.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 65.720(Average Objective).
September Orange Juice(NYBOT): The JOU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 187.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 182.80(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 179.50(Month Low) to 192.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Orange Juice(NYBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, JOU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOU should penetrate 179.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 167.15(Average Objective).
July Coffee "C"(NYBOT): The KCN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 121.25(Prev Close), the market ended March at 112.20(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 111.40(Month Low) to 120.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, KCN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 111.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 102.39(Average Objective).
May Lumber(CME): The LBK7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 261.4(Prev Close), the market ended March at 240.5(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 240.1(Month Low) to 262.0(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lumber(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LBK went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBK should penetrate 240.1(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 216.2(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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