MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		21	21	21	21	21	21	22	23	23	23	24
Closed Higher		10	13	12	17	11	10	14	14	11	15	19
Exceeded High		9	12	11	15	9	9	12	11	11	15	14
Scenario Percentage		90%	92%	92%	88%	82%	90%	86%	79%	100%	100%	74%
Avg Max Increase		4.77%	4.24%	6.15%	3.93%	4.71%	4.33%	5.00%	4.32%	6.40%	5.37%	2.68%
Max Increase		7.52%	9.23%	13.32%	13.65%	9.13%	12.10%	10.91%	6.97%	19.59%	12.49%	4.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	15	15	23	20	16	13	18	11	10
Avg Max Decline		-0.30%	-0.76%	-0.55%	-1.31%	-2.24%	-1.97%	-1.72%	-1.81%	-1.89%	-1.23%	-0.76%
Max Decline		-2.63%	-4.99%	-2.49%	-7.49%	-4.73%	-4.81%	-4.89%	-7.25%	-4.88%	-6.46%	-2.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	5	7	11	18	16	11	11	4	9	3
2020 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		21	21	21	21	21	21	22	23	23	23	24
Closed Lower		11	8	9	4	10	11	8	9	12	8	5
Penetrated Low		8	6	5	1	9	8	7	6	9	5
Scenario Percentage		73%	75%	56%	25%	90%	73%	88%	67%	75%	63%	0%
Avg Max Decline		12.11%	10.09%	3.58%	2.82%	4.56%	6.62%	10.48%	9.15%	8.51%	8.29%
Max Decline		35.61%	28.27%	4.73%	2.82%	14.36%	15.51%	25.82%	21.70%	31.53%	20.03%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	12	17	17	12	14	13	9	16	16
Avg Max Increase		-1.69%	-1.74%	-1.00%	-0.98%	-1.02%	-1.99%	-1.97%	-3.02%	-2.30%	-2.62%
Max Increase		-4.65%	-5.84%	-2.87%	-0.98%	-4.47%	-4.40%	-6.82%	-6.42%	-5.55%	-4.75%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	3	8	5	4	11	5	8	9	6
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No						Yes	Not Yet
High	28463	29157	29424	26714	24601	25546	27372	26930	28660	29050	28846	30165
Low	28295	28117	24887	18105	20523	22581	24350	25184	26080	26407	25953	26172
Close/Last	28382	28117	25241	21574	24084	25178	25566	26193	28289	27664	26394	29629