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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(CBOT) as of Sep 30, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 20 18 24 18 18 24 22 26 28 23
Exceeded High   15 15 14 18 11 12 18 13 20 14 13
Scenario Percentage   68% 75% 78% 75% 61% 67% 75% 59% 77% 50% 57%
Avg Max Increase   9.68% 12.91% 11.68% 12.55% 14.64% 19.19% 13.04% 13.12% 9.54% 9.06% 4.42%
Max Increase   44.14% 33.07% 31.79% 42.98% 33.73% 71.37% 48.19% 31.91% 25.73% 18.06% 11.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 17 16 13 20 17 19 15 17 12 6
Avg Max Decline   -2.04% -3.98% -3.49% -2.38% -2.46% -3.46% -2.94% -2.87% -1.76% -3.03% -1.35%
Max Decline   -7.09% -12.37% -11.59% -8.67% -8.22% -9.74% -10.13% -8.29% -5.32% -13.87% -2.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 10 12 4 7 6 7 10 4 8 2
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes       Yes    
Action       Yes Yes No       Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 25 27 21 27 27 21 22 19 17 22
Penetrated Low   19 23 22 17 22 22 20 16 15 13 17
Scenario Percentage   90% 92% 81% 81% 81% 81% 95% 73% 79% 76% 77%
Avg Max Decline   6.93% 6.42% 6.23% 6.57% 10.45% 9.51% 9.54% 8.67% 9.09% 8.72% 5.57%
Max Decline   13.07% 15.92% 20.00% 13.52% 27.55% 19.83% 21.01% 38.03% 27.06% 20.37% 15.79%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 19 18 21 20 19 20 17 19 12 8
Avg Max Increase   -2.21% -2.82% -3.28% -3.89% -3.02% -2.47% -4.33% -3.05% -4.69% -2.91% -1.18%
Max Increase   -6.33% -16.37% -9.68% -23.71% -11.75% -6.98% -18.64% -11.18% -12.87% -9.60% -4.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 15 12 9 9 8 12 9 10 4 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes      
Action   Yes Yes       Yes Yes Not Yet      
High 682.00 667.75 644.25 618.50 675.50 759.25 742.75 615.25 574.75 598.75    
Low 645.25 621.00 579.75 565.75 592.00 641.50 579.00 539.50 520.75 544.25    
Close/Last 669.00 636.00 600.75 612.00 648.75 723.50 597.00 552.00 551.50 584.00    

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Central banks bought big, but the COT report waves a red flag. Seasonal gains await—Market players, read or regret! https://tinyurl.com/4antcta9