MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(CBOT) as of Jun 23, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	20	19	24	19	17	23	23	27	28	23
Exceeded High		15	15	15	18	11	11	18	14	21	14	12
Scenario Percentage		68%	75%	79%	75%	58%	65%	78%	61%	78%	50%	52%
Avg Max Increase		9.68%	12.91%	11.44%	12.55%	14.64%	19.21%	13.04%	12.99%	9.59%	8.56%	4.30%
Max Increase		44.14%	33.07%	31.79%	42.98%	33.73%	71.37%	48.19%	31.91%	25.73%	18.06%	9.63%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	17	17	13	20	16	19	16	18	14	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.04%	-3.98%	-3.72%	-2.38%	-2.46%	-3.39%	-2.94%	-2.78%	-1.80%	-2.83%	-1.64%
Max Decline		-7.09%	-12.37%	-11.59%	-8.67%	-8.22%	-9.74%	-10.13%	-8.29%	-5.32%	-13.87%	-3.15%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	10	13	4	7	5	7	10	5	7	2
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	25	26	21	26	28	22	21	18	17	22
Penetrated Low		19	22	21	17	22	23	21	15	14	13	18
Scenario Percentage		90%	88%	81%	81%	85%	82%	95%	71%	78%	76%	82%
Avg Max Decline		6.56%	6.17%	5.70%	6.36%	10.45%	9.39%	9.32%	8.56%	9.56%	8.93%	5.85%
Max Decline		13.07%	15.92%	20.00%	13.52%	27.55%	19.83%	21.01%	38.03%	27.06%	20.37%	19.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	18	18	19	20	18	19	16	18	13	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.02%	-2.82%	-3.32%	-3.59%	-3.02%	-2.58%	-4.14%	-3.10%	-4.19%	-2.91%	-1.24%
Max Increase		-6.33%	-16.37%	-9.68%	-23.71%	-11.75%	-6.98%	-18.64%	-11.18%	-12.87%	-9.60%	-4.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	14	13	8	9	8	12	9	10	4	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		No					Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
High	814.75	818.75	926.50	1075.00	1126.75	1282.00	1130.00	954.00	849.00	945.75	949.75	904.00
Low	758.75	743.75	749.00	857.50	961.75	1037.75	897.25	772.50	743.25	791.25	822.50	750.25
Close/Last	770.00	765.25	899.50	972.75	1058.25	1107.00	900.50	825.75	831.50	921.50	882.25	771.50