MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(CBOT) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	20	18	22	19	17	22	21	26	27	23
Exceeded High		16	13	14	16	12	11	17	12	19	14	12
Scenario Percentage		73%	65%	78%	73%	63%	65%	77%	57%	73%	52%	52%
Avg Max Increase		9.39%	11.56%	9.99%	12.48%	14.39%	18.63%	14.01%	12.68%	9.54%	8.24%	3.86%
Max Increase		44.14%	33.07%	30.94%	42.98%	33.73%	71.37%	48.19%	31.91%	25.73%	18.06%	7.81%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	16	17	13	19	15	19	16	18	13	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.96%	-3.65%	-3.91%	-2.41%	-2.30%	-2.60%	-2.68%	-2.55%	-1.70%	-2.79%	-1.41%
Max Decline		-7.09%	-12.37%	-11.59%	-8.67%	-8.22%	-8.05%	-10.13%	-8.29%	-4.46%	-13.87%	-2.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	9	14	5	6	4	6	11	5	6	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No				Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	25	27	23	26	27	23	23	19	18	22
Penetrated Low		19	22	23	18	22	23	22	16	15	14	15
Scenario Percentage		95%	88%	85%	78%	85%	85%	96%	70%	79%	78%	68%
Avg Max Decline		6.68%	6.13%	5.88%	6.64%	10.30%	9.25%	9.54%	9.08%	9.83%	8.40%	5.49%
Max Decline		13.07%	15.92%	20.00%	13.52%	27.55%	19.83%	21.01%	38.03%	27.06%	15.15%	15.79%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	19	18	20	18	20	17	19	14	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.14%	-2.79%	-3.30%	-3.47%	-2.85%	-2.30%	-3.96%	-3.30%	-4.41%	-2.59%	-1.37%
Max Increase		-6.33%	-16.37%	-9.68%	-23.71%	-11.75%	-6.98%	-18.64%	-11.18%	-12.87%	-9.60%	-4.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	14	13	7	10	8	11	9	10	4	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
High	567.00	560.75	555.00	504.75	500.75	539.25	565.75	543.00	506.25	501.00	535.00	550.50
Low	542.00	541.00	491.00	459.50	452.75	442.25	506.25	490.75	459.25	450.50	485.25	498.50
Close/Last	542.50	549.25	492.75	484.75	455.00	523.25	538.50	493.25	462.50	495.75	508.75	547.50