MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(CBOT) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	19	20	23	20	17	24	17	18	22	23
Exceeded High		17	14	17	16	14	13	18	11	12	14	11
Scenario Percentage		61%	74%	85%	70%	70%	76%	75%	65%	67%	64%	48%
Avg Max Increase		6.41%	8.81%	10.85%	9.60%	14.44%	12.37%	12.97%	15.07%	19.81%	13.94%	6.47%
Max Increase		17.88%	20.85%	60.26%	45.64%	35.48%	33.54%	42.22%	33.42%	75.12%	40.91%	19.81%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	15	14	17	16	14	19	17	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.43%	-3.79%	-2.50%	-2.08%	-4.16%	-3.11%	-2.51%	-2.40%	-3.35%	-2.46%	-0.55%
Max Decline		-10.90%	-14.23%	-8.92%	-7.48%	-13.13%	-6.84%	-9.37%	-8.03%	-10.30%	-8.14%	-4.45%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	15	10	11	11	10	4	8	6	6	1
2023 Contract Condition		Yes								Yes	Yes
Action		No								Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	26	24	22	25	28	21	28	27	23	22
Penetrated Low		12	23	17	20	23	22	17	23	23	20	9
Scenario Percentage		71%	88%	71%	91%	92%	79%	81%	82%	85%	87%	41%
Avg Max Decline		6.17%	6.06%	6.39%	6.89%	6.76%	7.10%	6.98%	10.81%	9.78%	8.04%	5.27%
Max Decline		13.24%	16.65%	12.31%	13.35%	17.06%	21.09%	14.72%	28.85%	20.69%	19.50%	10.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	17	19	15	19	18	21	20	18	16	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.97%	-1.43%	-2.33%	-2.32%	-3.00%	-3.40%	-4.16%	-3.30%	-2.82%	-4.40%	-0.47%
Max Increase		-8.09%	-4.64%	-7.93%	-7.03%	-17.63%	-10.72%	-24.72%	-12.25%	-9.69%	-18.95%	-2.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	9	15	10	15	12	10	9	7	9	2
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes
High	923.75	942.75	923.50	816.75	810.75	816.75	746.00	733.75	680.00	770.25	777.25	684.00
Low	827.75	860.00	799.00	749.75	731.50	722.25	675.75	635.75	587.75	607.00	622.00	564.50
Close/Last	905.00	906.50	815.00	809.50	777.75	724.50	716.75	645.00	608.00	651.00	665.75	573.00