MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(CBOT) as of Dec 07, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	20	21	23	20	18	24	18	17	21	24
Exceeded High		18	14	17	16	14	14	18	11	11	14	12
Scenario Percentage		64%	70%	81%	70%	70%	78%	75%	61%	65%	67%	50%
Avg Max Increase		6.44%	8.81%	10.85%	9.60%	14.44%	12.05%	12.97%	15.07%	19.84%	13.94%	6.04%
Max Increase		17.88%	20.85%	60.26%	45.64%	35.48%	33.54%	42.22%	33.42%	75.12%	40.91%	19.81%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	15	14	17	17	14	19	16	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.31%	-3.79%	-2.50%	-2.08%	-4.16%	-3.33%	-2.51%	-2.40%	-3.25%	-2.46%	-0.52%
Max Decline		-10.90%	-14.23%	-8.92%	-7.48%	-13.13%	-6.84%	-9.37%	-8.03%	-10.30%	-8.14%	-4.45%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	15	10	11	11	11	4	8	6	6	1
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	25	23	22	25	27	21	27	28	24	21
Penetrated Low		12	22	16	20	22	21	17	23	24	20	8
Scenario Percentage		71%	88%	70%	91%	88%	78%	81%	85%	86%	83%	38%
Avg Max Decline		6.17%	5.87%	6.11%	6.52%	6.51%	6.58%	6.75%	10.81%	9.56%	8.04%	5.38%
Max Decline		13.24%	16.65%	12.31%	13.35%	17.06%	21.09%	14.72%	28.85%	20.69%	19.50%	10.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	16	18	15	18	17	19	20	18	16	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.97%	-1.48%	-2.42%	-2.12%	-3.00%	-3.45%	-3.83%	-3.30%	-2.93%	-4.40%	-0.22%
Max Increase		-8.09%	-4.64%	-7.93%	-7.03%	-17.63%	-10.72%	-24.72%	-12.25%	-9.69%	-18.95%	-2.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	9	13	10	14	12	9	9	7	9	2
2022 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	No					Yes	Yes
High	729.75	784.25	857.75	813.00	816.50	927.25	1168.00	1137.25	1285.00	1119.50	940.25	827.00
Low	681.75	719.75	770.75	755.00	738.25	744.00	896.00	971.75	1037.25	881.00	754.00	725.75
Close/Last	723.00	776.25	787.50	766.50	761.25	904.75	989.00	1058.25	1097.50	884.00	807.75	809.00