MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	27	29	20	22	23	18	18	22	19	17
Exceeded High		16	22	20	13	18	18	13	14	16	11	8
Scenario Percentage		70%	81%	69%	65%	82%	78%	72%	78%	73%	58%	47%
Avg Max Increase		7.54%	7.14%	6.85%	9.83%	11.20%	8.97%	15.75%	12.16%	12.97%	16.10%	8.04%
Max Increase		15.97%	17.15%	18.88%	20.41%	63.12%	45.71%	39.39%	35.10%	39.86%	32.52%	15.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	19	19	15	14	16	17	14	15	8
Avg Max Decline		-3.43%	-2.19%	-2.54%	-3.90%	-2.97%	-2.33%	-4.48%	-3.59%	-2.85%	-1.83%	-1.49%
Max Decline		-7.47%	-7.27%	-11.64%	-15.44%	-9.19%	-8.18%	-14.54%	-7.75%	-9.71%	-6.71%	-6.22%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	9	13	13	12	10	10	11	6	5	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	18	16	25	23	22	26	27	23	26	27
Penetrated Low		15	11	12	21	16	19	21	20	19	23	16
Scenario Percentage		68%	61%	75%	84%	70%	86%	81%	74%	83%	88%	59%
Avg Max Decline		7.29%	8.68%	6.60%	6.37%	6.61%	7.18%	7.65%	7.24%	7.15%	8.86%	5.12%
Max Decline		35.92%	25.45%	14.90%	16.92%	13.30%	13.83%	18.54%	22.04%	15.90%	27.74%	10.33%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	21	14	16	18	17	18	18	17	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.46%	-2.21%	-2.34%	-1.69%	-2.48%	-2.38%	-2.55%	-3.84%	-3.79%	-3.29%	-1.21%
Max Increase		-4.71%	-7.94%	-8.73%	-4.55%	-8.23%	-7.30%	-6.17%	-11.42%	-26.19%	-12.81%	-3.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	10	5	8	14	11	12	12	9	9	1
2022 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes					Yes
Action			No			Yes	No					Yes
High	713.75	748.00	728.00	784.00	863.00	813.75	817.75	942.75	1278.25	1143.50	1284.00	1108.75
Low	631.50	700.00	678.50	718.25	770.25	752.25	736.00	742.25	915.00	982.00	1034.25	868.75
Close/Last	701.00	724.50	721.50	775.75	787.00	764.50	760.50	917.00	1002.00	1055.75	1087.50	868.75