MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	27	28	19	23	24	17	17	21	18	17
Exceeded High		15	22	19	13	19	19	12	13	15	11	8
Scenario Percentage		68%	81%	68%	68%	83%	79%	71%	76%	71%	61%	47%
Avg Max Increase		7.49%	7.14%	6.62%	9.83%	10.91%	8.79%	13.78%	10.94%	12.39%	16.10%	8.04%
Max Increase		15.97%	17.15%	18.88%	20.41%	63.12%	45.71%	37.07%	35.10%	39.86%	32.52%	15.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	19	19	15	14	17	17	14	15	8
Avg Max Decline		-3.24%	-2.19%	-2.64%	-3.90%	-2.91%	-2.25%	-4.83%	-3.71%	-2.90%	-1.83%	-1.49%
Max Decline		-7.47%	-7.27%	-11.64%	-15.44%	-9.19%	-8.18%	-14.54%	-7.75%	-9.71%	-6.71%	-6.22%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	9	13	13	12	9	11	12	6	5	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	18	17	26	22	21	27	28	24	27	27
Penetrated Low		16	12	13	21	15	19	22	21	20	24	16
Scenario Percentage		70%	67%	76%	81%	68%	90%	81%	75%	83%	89%	59%
Avg Max Decline		7.89%	9.22%	6.85%	6.37%	6.80%	7.18%	7.69%	7.49%	7.40%	8.81%	4.91%
Max Decline		35.92%	25.45%	14.90%	16.92%	13.30%	13.83%	18.54%	22.04%	15.90%	27.74%	8.85%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	20	14	16	18	17	18	18	17	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.70%	-2.63%	-2.28%	-1.69%	-2.55%	-2.38%	-2.53%	-3.72%	-3.60%	-3.25%	-1.12%
Max Increase		-5.33%	-7.94%	-8.73%	-4.55%	-8.23%	-7.30%	-6.17%	-11.42%	-26.19%	-12.81%	-3.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	10	5	8	14	11	12	12	8	9	2
2021 Contract Condition					Yes				Yes		Yes
Action					Yes				No		Yes
High	554.75	570.25	591.25	624.75	619.25	630.25	670.50	672.75	657.50	769.50	767.50	704.00
Low	509.00	514.00	547.25	569.25	586.25	570.50	615.25	616.00	592.25	601.50	639.50	627.50
Close/Last	549.00	564.50	582.00	592.50	588.50	628.25	643.00	650.00	615.75	734.75	663.50	671.50