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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(CBOT) as of Jul 19, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   15 24 22 26 26 18 21 24 13 19 20
Exceeded High   10 19 14 21 16 13 15 17 9 13 13
Scenario Percentage   67% 79% 64% 81% 62% 72% 71% 71% 69% 68% 65%
Avg Max Increase   12.10% 10.85% 10.69% 6.97% 8.39% 9.41% 11.31% 8.70% 17.69% 10.51% 6.86%
Max Increase   21.60% 39.14% 24.15% 16.30% 22.32% 21.63% 51.12% 42.73% 45.99% 43.62% 14.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 19 12 16 17 16 16 15 16 12 8
Avg Max Decline   -2.43% -2.52% -1.88% -2.07% -3.12% -3.81% -3.29% -2.66% -3.97% -3.53% -1.74%
Max Decline   -8.84% -9.10% -7.20% -12.20% -12.26% -15.75% -8.75% -9.39% -15.57% -9.45% -8.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 6 11 6 13 10 11 9 10 8 2
2025 Contract Condition         Yes     Yes Yes      
Action         Yes     Yes Yes      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   30 21 23 19 19 27 24 21 32 26 24
Penetrated Low   26 20 16 14 16 26 19 18 26 18 12
Scenario Percentage   87% 95% 70% 74% 84% 96% 79% 86% 81% 69% 50%
Avg Max Decline   7.40% 8.67% 7.73% 8.38% 8.63% 7.41% 7.13% 9.00% 8.47% 7.61% 3.87%
Max Decline   15.81% 19.37% 36.51% 26.11% 19.01% 19.48% 13.38% 15.12% 19.71% 17.71% 8.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 18 14 20 17 17 20 19 18 9 6
Avg Max Increase   -2.33% -3.76% -2.06% -2.69% -2.83% -2.49% -3.25% -3.31% -2.50% -2.93% -1.21%
Max Increase   -8.15% -17.37% -11.49% -8.74% -8.76% -8.10% -8.22% -8.24% -7.61% -7.10% -6.68%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 11 7 10 5 11 13 12 11 6 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes No   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes
High 771.75 763.00 643.00 604.75 627.00 650.75 607.75 578.25 582.75 621.75 575.25 556.75
Low 676.00 607.00 572.50 553.75 576.75 590.25 552.75 539.75 537.75 555.00 517.50 505.00
Close/Last 746.25 625.25 585.25 583.75 615.75 601.50 557.00 562.50 572.25 555.75 537.00 513.00

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Central banks bought big, but the COT report waves a red flag. Seasonal gains await—Market players, read or regret! https://tinyurl.com/4antcta9