MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		15	23	23	27	27	20	20	24	14	20	21
Exceeded High		9	19	15	22	17	13	14	17	10	14	11
Scenario Percentage		60%	83%	65%	81%	63%	65%	70%	71%	71%	70%	52%
Avg Max Increase		11.60%	10.85%	10.30%	7.31%	7.91%	9.02%	11.36%	8.41%	16.14%	9.94%	5.60%
Max Increase		21.60%	39.14%	24.15%	16.30%	22.32%	21.63%	51.12%	42.73%	45.99%	43.62%	12.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	19	13	16	17	18	16	15	15	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.29%	-2.52%	-2.01%	-1.88%	-2.95%	-4.02%	-3.21%	-2.61%	-3.62%	-3.43%	-1.79%
Max Decline		-8.84%	-9.10%	-7.32%	-12.20%	-12.26%	-15.75%	-8.75%	-9.39%	-15.57%	-9.45%	-8.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	12	7	12	10	11	9	9	8	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	No			Yes	Not Yet	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		30	22	22	18	18	25	24	21	31	25	23
Penetrated Low		26	20	15	13	15	24	19	17	24	18	8
Scenario Percentage		87%	91%	68%	72%	83%	96%	79%	81%	77%	72%	35%
Avg Max Decline		7.12%	8.40%	7.70%	8.74%	7.52%	7.44%	6.66%	8.14%	8.54%	6.42%	3.66%
Max Decline		15.21%	19.37%	36.51%	26.11%	15.12%	19.48%	13.38%	14.16%	19.71%	17.71%	8.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	17	13	19	17	17	18	20	18	10	4
Avg Max Increase		-2.20%	-3.64%	-2.08%	-2.22%	-2.77%	-2.53%	-3.23%	-3.17%	-2.52%	-3.24%	-0.43%
Max Increase		-8.15%	-17.37%	-11.49%	-7.48%	-8.76%	-8.10%	-8.22%	-8.24%	-7.61%	-11.86%	-1.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	10	7	9	5	12	11	12	10	6	1
2022 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes	Yes
Action					No			Yes	No
High	765.25	722.50	731.50	795.50	749.50	795.25	879.00	827.25	834.00	960.75	1363.50	1135.00
Low	653.75	651.00	631.75	722.00	695.00	731.00	780.25	757.25	738.75	746.50	932.25	982.50
Close/Last	682.50	693.00	719.75	744.00	739.50	788.00	793.75	774.25	766.25	934.00	1006.00	1043.75