MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		14	22	22	27	26	19	21	24	13	19	20
Exceeded High		8	18	15	22	16	13	15	17	9	14	11
Scenario Percentage		57%	82%	68%	81%	62%	68%	71%	71%	69%	74%	55%
Avg Max Increase		11.20%	10.86%	10.30%	7.31%	7.68%	9.02%	10.91%	8.41%	12.83%	10.06%	5.80%
Max Increase		21.60%	39.14%	24.15%	16.30%	22.32%	21.63%	51.12%	42.73%	44.48%	43.62%	13.84%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	19	13	16	16	18	16	15	16	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.47%	-2.68%	-2.01%	-1.88%	-3.08%	-4.02%	-3.14%	-2.61%	-4.00%	-3.43%	-1.79%
Max Decline		-6.03%	-9.10%	-7.32%	-12.20%	-12.26%	-15.75%	-8.75%	-9.39%	-15.57%	-9.45%	-8.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	12	7	12	10	12	9	10	8	2
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No			Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		30	22	23	18	19	26	23	21	32	26	24
Penetrated Low		26	20	16	14	16	24	18	18	25	19	11
Scenario Percentage		87%	91%	70%	78%	84%	92%	78%	86%	78%	73%	46%
Avg Max Decline		7.12%	8.40%	8.27%	9.12%	7.65%	7.44%	6.78%	7.91%	8.51%	6.84%	4.20%
Max Decline		15.21%	19.37%	36.51%	26.11%	15.12%	19.48%	13.38%	14.16%	19.71%	17.71%	8.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	17	14	18	16	17	19	20	18	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.20%	-3.64%	-2.30%	-2.56%	-2.70%	-2.53%	-3.33%	-3.28%	-2.58%	-3.11%	-0.86%
Max Increase		-8.15%	-17.37%	-11.49%	-7.48%	-8.76%	-8.10%	-8.22%	-8.24%	-7.61%	-11.86%	-6.68%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	10	7	9	5	12	11	12	10	6	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		No					Yes			Yes	Not Yet
High	546.50	554.75	560.00	571.75	596.00	636.25	628.25	641.50	693.00	688.50	668.75	773.00
Low	520.00	494.25	509.25	509.75	547.50	572.00	588.00	569.25	626.00	628.50	593.25	601.25
Close/Last	542.75	512.25	549.75	564.75	586.25	600.25	588.75	639.50	662.50	660.25	618.00	742.50