MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		42	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		13	23	22	27	25	18	19	24	14	19	19
Exceeded High		8	19	14	21	14	12	13	18	9	14	11
Scenario Percentage		62%	83%	64%	78%	56%	67%	68%	75%	64%	74%	58%
Avg Max Increase		11.20%	11.27%	10.14%	7.36%	7.64%	9.07%	11.54%	8.70%	12.83%	10.25%	6.00%
Max Increase		21.60%	39.14%	24.15%	16.30%	22.32%	21.63%	51.12%	42.73%	44.48%	43.62%	13.84%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	20	13	15	14	17	15	15	16	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.47%	-2.83%	-1.93%	-1.93%	-2.96%	-3.98%	-3.34%	-2.49%	-4.00%	-3.43%	-1.66%
Max Decline		-6.03%	-12.75%	-7.32%	-12.20%	-12.26%	-15.75%	-8.75%	-9.39%	-15.57%	-9.45%	-8.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	12	8	10	10	13	9	10	8	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes						Yes
Action			Yes						No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		42	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		29	21	23	18	20	27	25	21	31	26	25
Penetrated Low		26	19	16	14	17	25	19	18	24	20	12
Scenario Percentage		90%	90%	70%	78%	85%	93%	76%	86%	77%	77%	48%
Avg Max Decline		7.12%	8.36%	8.59%	9.12%	8.26%	8.49%	7.73%	8.00%	8.41%	6.82%	4.64%
Max Decline		15.21%	19.37%	36.51%	26.11%	18.08%	29.41%	24.92%	14.16%	19.71%	17.71%	8.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	18	14	18	16	18	19	20	17	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.20%	-3.75%	-2.33%	-2.56%	-2.50%	-2.56%	-3.20%	-3.60%	-2.57%	-3.16%	-0.72%
Max Increase		-8.15%	-17.37%	-11.49%	-7.48%	-8.76%	-8.10%	-8.22%	-8.68%	-7.61%	-11.86%	-6.68%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	10	7	9	5	11	11	12	10	6	1
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	609.00	604.00	603.00	630.25	575.00	557.50	540.25	544.25	534.75	532.75	478.00	477.50
Low	553.25	526.00	520.75	555.00	532.00	519.75	509.75	510.00	508.75	457.75	427.00	416.25
Close/Last	589.50	543.75	592.75	577.75	538.25	527.50	521.25	510.50	521.75	459.50	457.75	418.50