MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Sep 29, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		39	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Higher		33	23	27	28	25	28	21	22	22	19	26
Exceeded High		32	21	25	25	22	23	17	21	17	16	22
Scenario Percentage		97%	91%	93%	89%	88%	82%	81%	95%	77%	84%	85%
Avg Max Increase		6.83%	6.42%	5.79%	6.92%	6.87%	5.60%	6.56%	4.87%	3.73%	5.96%	5.53%
Max Increase		19.42%	15.50%	17.47%	33.15%	21.94%	14.55%	20.76%	15.65%	11.06%	15.29%	20.93%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	20	20	13	18	19	16	15	20	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.46%	-0.63%	-1.61%	-1.80%	-1.84%	-1.37%	-1.43%	-2.34%	-2.14%	-2.86%	-0.63%
Max Decline		-6.39%	-3.17%	-5.34%	-7.87%	-10.85%	-6.07%	-7.11%	-8.30%	-7.81%	-10.96%	-4.26%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	7	10	7	9	6	12	12	9	3
2023 Contract Condition			Yes					Yes	Yes
Action			Yes					Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		39	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Lower		6	16	12	12	15	12	17	18	18	20	14
Penetrated Low		4	10	7	8	8	8	9	13	11	13	6
Scenario Percentage		67%	63%	58%	67%	53%	67%	53%	72%	61%	65%	43%
Avg Max Decline		11.58%	10.91%	11.96%	4.74%	6.65%	8.67%	12.68%	10.42%	9.12%	11.64%	7.23%
Max Decline		14.87%	42.43%	36.41%	8.13%	14.21%	27.60%	21.92%	23.82%	20.78%	46.75%	32.22%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	15	14	15	17	18	17	16	16	18	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.06%	-2.21%	-1.53%	-1.32%	-1.93%	-1.42%	-1.22%	-1.41%	-3.06%	-1.73%	-1.19%
Max Increase		-5.71%	-7.04%	-4.10%	-4.06%	-4.32%	-3.10%	-3.28%	-6.60%	-9.97%	-7.11%	-3.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	5	7	6	12	12	6	6	13	7	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	No	Yes	No			Yes	Not Yet
High	9026.00	9097.00	9424.00	9749.00	9399.00	9079.00	8986.00	9412.00	9820.00	9819.00	9543.00
Low	8129.00	8334.00	8464.00	9128.00	8466.00	8693.00	8593.00	8616.00	9146.00	9142.00	8827.00
Close/Last	9026.00	8530.00	9424.00	9199.00	9025.00	8923.00	8642.00	9381.00	9819.00	9443.00	8951.00