MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		37	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		22	25	26	24	26	20	21	21	19	24	28
Exceeded High		20	23	24	21	22	17	20	16	16	20	25
Scenario Percentage		91%	92%	92%	88%	85%	85%	95%	76%	84%	83%	89%
Avg Max Increase		5.96%	5.66%	6.94%	6.99%	5.76%	6.56%	4.80%	3.80%	6.05%	8.04%	3.45%
Max Increase		15.27%	17.47%	33.15%	21.94%	14.55%	20.76%	15.65%	11.06%	15.29%	26.21%	8.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	19	14	18	19	16	15	20	23	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.66%	-1.42%	-1.88%	-1.80%	-1.42%	-1.43%	-2.40%	-1.97%	-2.86%	-1.11%	-1.04%
Max Decline		-3.17%	-5.34%	-7.87%	-10.85%	-6.07%	-7.11%	-8.30%	-7.81%	-10.96%	-5.28%	-4.57%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	10	7	9	6	13	12	9	9	4
2020 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		37	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		15	12	12	14	12	16	17	17	18	14	10
Penetrated Low		9	7	8	7	8	9	13	10	12	8	5
Scenario Percentage		60%	58%	67%	50%	67%	56%	76%	59%	67%	57%	50%
Avg Max Decline		11.45%	11.96%	4.74%	5.85%	8.67%	12.68%	10.42%	8.92%	12.51%	7.68%	2.28%
Max Decline		42.43%	36.41%	8.13%	14.21%	27.60%	21.92%	23.82%	20.78%	46.75%	32.22%	3.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	15	18	18	17	16	16	19	11	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.06%	-1.53%	-1.32%	-1.59%	-1.42%	-1.22%	-1.41%	-2.93%	-1.28%	-1.83%	-1.58%
Max Increase		-7.04%	-4.10%	-4.06%	-2.38%	-3.10%	-3.28%	-6.60%	-9.97%	-3.54%	-4.35%	-7.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	7	6	13	12	6	6	13	8	7	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes						Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No						No
High	6687.00	6810.00	6704.00	6042.00	5566.00	5903.00	6565.00	6269.00	6617.00	6633.00	6734.00	7627.00
Low	6298.00	6397.00	5652.00	3691.00	4150.00	4800.00	5668.00	5719.00	6166.00	5972.00	6172.00	6307.00
Close/Last	6659.00	6411.00	5804.00	4546.00	5384.00	5731.00	5915.00	6166.00	6478.00	6235.00	6307.00	7459.00