MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		36	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		22	25	26	23	25	19	20	19	20	23	27
Exceeded High		20	23	24	20	21	16	19	16	17	19	23
Scenario Percentage		91%	92%	92%	87%	84%	84%	95%	84%	85%	83%	85%
Avg Max Increase		5.99%	5.63%	6.87%	6.24%	5.34%	6.13%	4.59%	3.55%	5.78%	6.87%	3.28%
Max Increase		15.44%	17.48%	33.19%	16.79%	13.56%	20.82%	15.64%	11.05%	15.24%	16.53%	8.68%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	20	15	19	19	17	16	20	22	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.60%	-1.40%	-1.90%	-1.35%	-1.47%	-1.31%	-7.71%	-1.48%	-2.73%	-1.17%	-1.03%
Max Decline		-3.00%	-5.34%	-7.92%	-4.20%	-6.08%	-7.10%	-99.88%	-3.68%	-10.95%	-5.52%	-4.58%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	10	6	10	6	14	10	9	9	4
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		36	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		14	11	11	14	12	17	17	18	16	14	10
Penetrated Low		8	6	9	7	8	10	13	11	11	8	5
Scenario Percentage		57%	55%	82%	50%	67%	59%	76%	61%	69%	57%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.63%	7.89%	4.40%	5.78%	8.68%	13.16%	10.45%	17.11%	12.53%	7.71%	2.35%
Max Decline		23.24%	12.75%	8.19%	14.21%	27.57%	21.86%	23.80%	98.82%	46.76%	32.20%	3.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	13	14	18	18	17	18	18	18	13	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.70%	-1.09%	-1.22%	-1.57%	-1.44%	-1.28%	-1.41%	-1162.88%	-1.36%	-2.02%	-1.54%
Max Increase		-7.08%	-3.08%	-4.06%	-2.37%	-3.34%	-3.27%	-6.71%	-12762.48%	-3.49%	-4.35%	-7.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	7	7	13	12	7	6	13	9	8	4
2019 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes			Yes
Action				Yes		No			No
High	6145.90	5996.80	6322.10	6285.80	6404.00	6403.50	6235.80	6353.50	6304.60	6368.60	6334.20	6490.20
Low	5073.20	5295.80	5945.60	6009.40	6153.90	5797.50	5808.90	6201.00	5753.30	5859.60	5902.90	6252.10
Close/Last	5386.00	5988.20	6226.20	6153.90	6376.10	5808.90	6233.40	6274.00	5957.70	6188.10	6252.10	6446.10