MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		34	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher		20	24	26	21	24	17	18	19	18	22	25
Exceeded High		19	22	24	19	20	14	17	16	16	18	23
Scenario Percentage		95%	92%	92%	90%	83%	82%	94%	84%	89%	82%	92%
Avg Max Increase		6.01%	5.76%	6.87%	6.20%	5.38%	6.62%	4.96%	3.55%	5.84%	7.04%	3.28%
Max Increase		15.44%	17.48%	33.19%	16.79%	13.56%	20.82%	15.64%	11.05%	15.24%	16.53%	8.68%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	20	15	20	18	17	16	20	22	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.59%	-1.31%	-1.90%	-1.34%	-1.55%	-1.41%	-2.25%	-1.48%	-2.62%	-1.24%	-1.03%
Max Decline		-3.00%	-5.34%	-7.92%	-4.20%	-6.08%	-7.10%	-7.87%	-3.68%	-10.95%	-5.52%	-4.58%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	10	7	10	5	13	10	9	10	4
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		34	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower		14	10	9	14	11	17	17	16	16	13	10
Penetrated Low		8	6	7	7	8	10	13	10	11	7	5
Scenario Percentage		57%	60%	78%	50%	73%	59%	76%	63%	69%	54%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.63%	7.89%	4.41%	5.78%	8.68%	13.16%	10.45%	8.94%	12.53%	6.69%	2.35%
Max Decline		23.24%	12.75%	8.19%	14.21%	27.57%	21.86%	23.80%	20.76%	46.76%	32.20%	3.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	13	13	18	18	17	18	17	18	11	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.70%	-1.09%	-0.99%	-1.57%	-1.44%	-1.28%	-1.41%	-2.92%	-1.36%	-1.69%	-1.54%
Max Increase		-7.08%	-3.08%	-2.71%	-2.37%	-3.34%	-3.27%	-6.71%	-10.04%	-3.49%	-3.72%	-7.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	7	6	13	12	7	6	13	9	8	4
2017 Contract Condition						Yes			Yes
Action						No			No
High	5392.80	5428.00	5530.60	5533.20	5582.00	5536.60	5584.90	5679.30	5627.60	5784.90	5868.20	6058.80
Low	5136.60	5273.50	5319.00	5302.90	5340.30	5351.50	5453.60	5467.90	5355.60	5472.60	5765.20	5719.60
Close/Last	5262.00	5349.00	5444.60	5459.10	5513.70	5450.10	5539.80	5609.20	5510.50	5778.00	5830.30	6040.00