MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		19	22	24	19	23	16	16	18	16	21	23
Exceeded High		18	20	22	17	19	13	15	15	14	17	21
Scenario Percentage		95%	91%	92%	89%	83%	81%	94%	83%	88%	81%	91%
Avg Max Increase		6.15%	5.54%	7.20%	6.64%	5.39%	6.93%	5.26%	3.69%	5.94%	7.15%	3.31%
Max Increase		15.44%	17.48%	33.19%	16.79%	13.56%	20.82%	15.64%	11.05%	15.24%	16.53%	8.68%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	18	19	15	19	18	17	16	19	22	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.60%	-1.31%	-1.86%	-1.08%	-1.33%	-1.41%	-2.12%	-1.52%	-2.53%	-1.20%	-1.00%
Max Decline		-3.00%	-5.34%	-7.92%	-3.64%	-6.08%	-7.10%	-7.87%	-3.68%	-10.95%	-5.52%	-4.58%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	6	10	5	10	5	13	10	5	9	4
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		13	10	9	14	10	16	17	15	16	12	10
Penetrated Low		8	6	7	7	8	10	13	10	11	6	5
Scenario Percentage		62%	60%	78%	50%	80%	63%	76%	67%	69%	50%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.63%	7.89%	4.41%	5.78%	8.68%	13.16%	10.45%	8.94%	12.53%	7.43%	2.35%
Max Decline		23.24%	12.75%	8.19%	14.21%	27.57%	21.86%	23.80%	20.76%	46.76%	32.20%	3.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	13	13	18	18	17	18	17	18	13	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.70%	-1.09%	-0.99%	-1.57%	-1.44%	-1.28%	-1.41%	-2.92%	-1.36%	-1.93%	-1.54%
Max Increase		-7.08%	-3.08%	-2.71%	-2.37%	-3.34%	-3.27%	-6.71%	-10.04%	-3.49%	-3.72%	-7.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	7	6	13	12	7	6	13	9	9	4
2016 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes				Yes
Action		No					No				Yes
High	4582.70	4312.30	4211.50	4558.60	4726.60	4682.00	4801.40	4917.00	5002.70	5009.00	4974.70	5231.10
Low	4240.20	3711.10	3764.30	4171.10	4423.20	4440.20	4399.90	4575.30	4809.80	4805.10	4782.00	4695.00
Close/Last	4358.70	4075.90	4172.90	4540.20	4635.00	4669.40	4661.30	4904.10	4934.20	4963.30	4803.30	5172.40