MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher		19	20	23	19	21	15	16	17	16	19	21
Exceeded High		18	18	21	17	17	12	15	14	14	15	20
Scenario Percentage		95%	90%	91%	89%	81%	80%	94%	82%	88%	79%	95%
Avg Max Increase		6.15%	5.92%	7.47%	6.64%	5.61%	7.40%	5.26%	3.91%	5.94%	7.68%	3.36%
Max Increase		15.44%	17.48%	33.19%	16.79%	13.56%	20.82%	15.64%	11.05%	15.24%	16.53%	8.68%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	19	20	15	20	19	17	17	19	23	18
Avg Max Decline		-0.60%	-1.18%	-1.96%	-1.08%	-1.38%	-1.55%	-2.12%	-1.61%	-2.53%	-1.15%	-0.82%
Max Decline		-3.00%	-5.34%	-7.92%	-3.64%	-6.08%	-7.10%	-7.87%	-3.68%	-10.95%	-5.52%	-3.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	4	11	5	10	6	13	11	5	7	4
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower		11	10	8	12	10	15	15	14	14	12	10
Penetrated Low		7	6	7	6	8	9	11	9	10	6	5
Scenario Percentage		64%	60%	88%	50%	80%	60%	73%	64%	71%	50%	50%
Avg Max Decline		8.22%	7.89%	4.41%	6.54%	8.68%	13.34%	11.20%	9.13%	13.11%	7.43%	2.35%
Max Decline		23.24%	12.75%	8.19%	14.21%	27.57%	21.86%	23.80%	20.76%	46.76%	32.20%	3.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	13	13	16	18	17	18	16	18	13	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.95%	-1.09%	-0.99%	-1.44%	-1.44%	-1.32%	-1.60%	-3.04%	-1.47%	-1.93%	-1.54%
Max Increase		-7.08%	-3.08%	-2.71%	-2.11%	-3.34%	-3.27%	-6.71%	-10.04%	-3.49%	-3.72%	-7.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	7	6	6	12	6	7	12	9	9	4
2013 Contract Condition							Yes		Yes
Action							No		No
High	3187.30	3393.40	3476.90	3552.30	3579.10	3815.20	3769.20	3951.40	3989.80	4063.40	4206.70	4311.00
Low	3047.40	3164.50	3337.50	3363.30	3397.60	3518.80	3574.10	3680.80	3793.90	3798.50	3903.50	4098.90
Close/Last	3164.70	3380.00	3402.40	3548.80	3579.10	3719.70	3680.90	3917.10	3800.50	4011.30	4151.00	4295.10