MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Higher	16	16	19	16	20	14	14	16	13	16	18
Exceeded High	15	14	18	15	16	11	13	13	12	13	17
Scenario Percentage	94%	88%	95%	94%	80%	79%	93%	81%	92%	81%	94%
Avg Max Increase	6.11%	5.48%	7.63%	7.06%	5.58%	7.64%	5.33%	3.70%	5.60%	7.57%	3.10%
Max Increase	15.44%	11.48%	33.19%	16.79%	13.56%	20.82%	15.64%	11.05%	15.24%	16.53%	8.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	17	21	16	20	19	16	18	19	22	17
Avg Max Decline	-0.66%	-0.77%	-1.92%	-1.07%	-1.22%	-1.32%	-1.60%	-1.68%	-2.62%	-1.16%	-0.72%
Max Decline	-3.00%	-4.88%	-7.92%	-3.64%	-6.08%	-7.10%	-4.02%	-3.68%	-10.95%	-5.52%	-3.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	4	10	6	9	4	11	11	5	8	4
2009 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Lower	10	10	8	11	7	12	13	11	13	11	9
Penetrated Low	6	6	7	5	5	7	10	8	9	5	8
Scenario Percentage	60%	60%	88%	45%	71%	58%	77%	73%	69%	45%	89%
Avg Max Decline	9.08%	7.89%	4.41%	5.55%	9.46%	13.74%	10.42%	8.22%	13.87%	7.91%	14.31%
Max Decline	23.24%	12.75%	8.19%	14.21%	27.57%	21.86%	23.80%	20.76%	46.76%	32.20%	30.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	13	13	18	24	20	18	17	20	12	11
Avg Max Increase	-1.77%	-1.09%	-0.99%	-1.44%	-1.79%	-1.18%	-1.64%	-3.31%	-1.57%	-1.87%	-4.40%
Max Increase	-7.08%	-3.08%	-2.71%	-2.11%	-3.34%	-3.19%	-6.71%	-10.04%	-3.49%	-3.72%	-9.17%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	7	6	7	15	7	8	14	10	9	23
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes								Yes
Action	Yes	Yes								Yes
High	1517.90	1384.50	1372.00	1632.20	1727.30	1802.60	1925.70	2071.40	2210.50	2239.70	2195.50
Low	1255.50	1131.50	992.50	1269.50	1578.60	1632.70	1592.70	1914.40	1952.50	2029.00	2005.40
Close/Last	1293.00	1137.60	1296.90	1595.10	1695.80	1714.50	1911.50	2016.90	2149.40	2035.30	2111.40