MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		25	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Higher		16	16	18	15	19	13	13	15	12	16	17
Exceeded High		15	14	17	14	15	10	12	12	11	13	16
Scenario Percentage		94%	88%	94%	93%	79%	77%	92%	80%	92%	81%	94%
Avg Max Increase		6.11%	5.48%	6.13%	6.63%	5.04%	6.33%	4.48%	3.09%	5.73%	7.57%	2.75%
Max Increase		15.44%	11.48%	22.43%	16.79%	11.15%	10.25%	8.96%	7.54%	15.24%	16.53%	6.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	17	21	16	19	18	16	18	19	22	16
Avg Max Decline		-0.66%	-0.77%	-1.91%	-1.07%	-0.90%	-0.74%	-1.74%	-1.55%	-2.44%	-1.16%	-0.79%
Max Decline		-3.00%	-4.88%	-7.92%	-3.64%	-2.96%	-5.53%	-4.02%	-3.68%	-10.95%	-5.52%	-3.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	4	11	5	7	4	11	12	5	8	4
2008 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	No		Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		25	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Lower		9	9	8	11	7	12	13	11	13	10	9
Penetrated Low		5	5	7	5	5	7	10	8	9	4	5
Scenario Percentage		56%	56%	88%	45%	71%	58%	77%	73%	69%	40%	56%
Avg Max Decline		6.25%	6.92%	4.41%	5.55%	9.46%	13.74%	10.42%	8.22%	13.87%	9.52%	2.35%
Max Decline		9.71%	11.11%	8.19%	14.21%	27.57%	21.86%	23.80%	20.76%	46.76%	32.20%	3.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	15	13	18	24	20	18	17	20	15	11
Avg Max Increase		-0.71%	-1.44%	-0.99%	-1.44%	-1.79%	-1.18%	-1.64%	-3.31%	-1.57%	-2.00%	-1.54%
Max Increase		-2.68%	-3.08%	-2.71%	-2.11%	-3.34%	-3.19%	-6.71%	-10.04%	-3.49%	-3.72%	-7.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	8	6	7	15	7	8	14	10	11	4
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No	Yes	No			Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	2346.10	2249.30	2181.00	2107.30	2179.90	2255.20	2248.00	2085.70	2159.80	2150.40	1909.40	1554.30
Low	2182.70	1916.20	2058.50	1930.10	2047.80	2147.60	1994.60	1839.20	1995.10	1839.20	1238.60	1016.00
Close/Last	2245.60	2130.50	2066.30	2050.80	2150.80	2227.40	1994.60	2033.20	2108.70	1908.30	1498.60	1316.70