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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Utilities as of Jun 30, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   32 23 32 23 18 27 30 28 24 28 27
Exceeded High   27 19 21 16 17 27 24 21 21 26 19
Scenario Percentage   84% 83% 66% 70% 94% 100% 80% 75% 88% 93% 70%
Avg Max Increase   5.61% 5.56% 6.47% 5.24% 5.48% 5.37% 5.60% 5.36% 4.72% 4.73% 3.65%
Max Increase   12.72% 13.75% 12.16% 9.67% 11.96% 19.81% 14.30% 11.22% 9.82% 23.61% 10.60%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 19 18 17 18 15 18 19 17 15 19
Avg Max Decline   -1.70% -1.89% -1.61% -1.19% -2.30% -1.40% -2.00% -1.70% -1.51% -1.14% -0.97%
Max Decline   -6.05% -6.33% -3.78% -2.23% -11.63% -5.66% -7.28% -5.18% -4.42% -3.65% -4.69%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 9 5 7 11 8 10 9 8 6 4
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action     No   No Yes Yes Yes Yes Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   13 22 13 21 27 17 15 17 21 17 18
Penetrated Low   5 12 9 14 16 8 10 10 12 13 11
Scenario Percentage   38% 55% 69% 67% 59% 47% 67% 59% 57% 76% 61%
Avg Max Decline   5.38% 4.77% 6.95% 7.94% 8.59% 5.25% 4.75% 8.71% 7.91% 6.65% 5.70%
Max Decline   8.28% 14.90% 14.13% 21.92% 29.34% 10.39% 12.12% 35.33% 31.91% 17.96% 15.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 13 19 15 15 16 14 20 14 16 17
Avg Max Increase   -0.90% -2.10% -2.49% -1.29% -1.80% -1.61% -1.76% -1.55% -1.70% -2.41% -1.91%
Max Increase   -2.17% -7.55% -4.92% -4.80% -10.26% -3.69% -4.09% -5.76% -4.65% -6.43% -5.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase   3 10 7 2 6 6 6 8 10 11 6
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes                
Action   Yes   Yes                
High 1064.50 1074.20 1086.50 1082.40 1035.80 1026.15 1028.25 1041.65 1053.85 1055.45    
Low 1019.40 1022.20 1001.90 964.80 953.25 986.15 967.20 928.75 988.60 1016.40    
Close/Last 1060.00 1036.90 1078.95 982.75 999.55 1005.45 1024.05 1032.80 1040.90 1054.45    

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