MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Utilities as of Sep 29, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		31	23	18	27	29	28	24	28	26	24	31
Exceeded High		21	17	17	27	23	21	21	27	20	21	19
Scenario Percentage		68%	74%	94%	100%	79%	75%	88%	96%	77%	88%	61%
Avg Max Increase		6.47%	4.97%	5.48%	5.03%	5.53%	5.48%	4.67%	4.44%	5.76%	5.82%	3.70%
Max Increase		12.16%	9.67%	11.96%	19.81%	14.30%	11.22%	9.82%	23.61%	13.93%	14.31%	8.57%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	18	15	18	19	17	15	19	14	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.61%	-1.30%	-2.30%	-1.25%	-2.07%	-1.48%	-1.50%	-1.15%	-1.80%	-1.25%	-1.08%
Max Decline		-3.78%	-3.05%	-11.63%	-5.66%	-7.28%	-3.93%	-4.42%	-3.65%	-6.64%	-7.26%	-3.63%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	8	11	8	11	7	7	6	12	7	4
2023 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			No		Yes	No		Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		14	21	27	17	16	17	21	17	18	21	14
Penetrated Low		9	14	16	8	11	9	11	13	13	12	6
Scenario Percentage		64%	67%	59%	47%	69%	53%	52%	76%	72%	57%	43%
Avg Max Decline		7.18%	7.83%	8.51%	5.25%	4.59%	9.47%	8.54%	6.69%	8.41%	11.77%	4.38%
Max Decline		14.13%	21.92%	29.34%	10.39%	12.12%	35.33%	31.91%	17.96%	38.37%	31.31%	8.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	16	16	16	14	22	15	17	13	17	17
Avg Max Increase		-2.13%	-1.27%	-1.79%	-1.61%	-1.66%	-1.69%	-1.78%	-2.41%	-1.76%	-2.36%	-1.14%
Max Increase		-4.92%	-4.80%	-10.26%	-3.69%	-4.09%	-5.76%	-4.65%	-6.43%	-5.36%	-6.99%	-2.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	3	7	6	6	9	11	11	9	7	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes			Yes			Yes	Not Yet
High	981.85	1013.30	1003.65	987.00	939.80	980.00	970.65	932.65	958.65	935.35	902.15
Low	880.25	949.05	940.65	906.70	877.50	928.20	885.35	884.00	896.60	865.90	811.00
Close/Last	981.30	967.40	971.00	907.00	939.80	959.60	900.35	906.65	931.20	872.70	816.55