MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Utilities as of Oct 31, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	18	27	30	28	25	28	26	25	30	23
Exceeded High		17	17	27	24	22	22	26	20	22	25	16
Scenario Percentage		71%	94%	100%	80%	79%	88%	93%	77%	88%	83%	70%
Avg Max Increase		4.97%	5.48%	5.13%	5.59%	5.60%	4.63%	4.46%	5.76%	5.61%	5.08%	4.22%
Max Increase		9.67%	11.96%	19.81%	14.30%	11.22%	9.82%	23.61%	13.93%	14.31%	12.12%	7.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	15	18	19	17	15	19	14	18	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.30%	-2.30%	-1.23%	-1.99%	-1.43%	-1.45%	-1.12%	-1.80%	-1.21%	-1.66%	-1.20%
Max Decline		-3.05%	-11.63%	-5.66%	-7.28%	-3.93%	-4.42%	-3.65%	-6.64%	-7.26%	-6.05%	-3.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	11	8	10	7	7	6	12	7	8	5
2022 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes
Action				Yes		No		Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	27	17	15	17	20	17	18	20	15	22
Penetrated Low		13	16	8	10	9	11	13	13	11	7	9
Scenario Percentage		65%	59%	47%	67%	53%	55%	76%	72%	55%	47%	41%
Avg Max Decline		7.91%	8.51%	5.25%	3.83%	9.47%	8.54%	6.69%	7.19%	12.17%	4.36%	2.70%
Max Decline		21.92%	29.34%	10.39%	6.70%	35.33%	31.91%	17.96%	38.37%	31.31%	8.28%	4.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	16	16	14	22	15	17	14	18	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.36%	-1.79%	-1.61%	-1.47%	-1.69%	-1.78%	-2.41%	-1.60%	-2.10%	-1.01%	-1.17%
Max Increase		-4.80%	-10.26%	-3.69%	-4.09%	-5.76%	-4.65%	-6.43%	-4.76%	-6.99%	-2.36%	-2.33%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	7	6	4	9	11	11	11	8	2	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes		No		Yes	Yes
High	984.40	982.65	956.35	1051.25	1077.10	1035.40	1031.30	1028.20	1061.15	1063.15	934.75
Low	892.05	909.80	888.50	930.80	998.40	972.45	878.75	938.55	1003.30	887.20	823.65
Close/Last	980.80	954.20	942.55	1041.95	999.90	1023.05	969.30	1024.20	1009.10	888.45	913.45