MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Utilities as of Oct 29, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	18	26	30	28	26	28	26	26	30	24
Exceeded High		18	17	26	24	22	23	26	20	23	25	17
Scenario Percentage		72%	94%	100%	80%	79%	88%	93%	77%	88%	83%	71%
Avg Max Increase		4.80%	5.48%	5.08%	5.59%	5.60%	4.75%	4.61%	6.03%	5.60%	5.20%	4.33%
Max Increase		9.67%	11.96%	19.81%	14.30%	11.22%	9.82%	23.61%	13.93%	14.31%	12.12%	7.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	15	18	19	17	16	20	14	18	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.27%	-2.30%	-1.25%	-1.99%	-1.43%	-1.41%	-1.13%	-1.82%	-1.25%	-1.60%	-1.18%
Max Decline		-3.05%	-11.63%	-5.66%	-7.28%	-3.93%	-4.42%	-3.65%	-6.64%	-7.26%	-6.05%	-3.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	11	8	10	7	7	6	12	8	7	4
2021 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	No			Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	27	18	15	17	19	17	18	19	15	21
Penetrated Low		12	16	9	10	8	11	13	13	11	7	8
Scenario Percentage		63%	59%	50%	67%	47%	58%	76%	72%	58%	47%	38%
Avg Max Decline		7.97%	8.65%	5.11%	3.83%	10.31%	8.54%	6.69%	7.19%	12.17%	4.36%	3.01%
Max Decline		21.92%	29.34%	10.39%	6.70%	35.33%	31.91%	17.96%	38.37%	31.31%	8.28%	4.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	17	14	21	15	17	14	18	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.24%	-1.65%	-1.59%	-1.47%	-1.54%	-1.78%	-2.41%	-1.60%	-2.10%	-1.01%	-1.02%
Max Increase		-4.80%	-10.26%	-3.69%	-4.09%	-5.76%	-4.65%	-6.43%	-4.76%	-6.99%	-2.36%	-1.89%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	9	8	4	8	11	11	11	8	2	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			Yes	No			Not Yet
High	879.20	873.45	876.00	886.10	937.40	928.60	923.10	923.60	952.15	952.75	928.90
Low	836.35	829.60	795.35	792.10	873.95	887.10	872.75	873.55	908.10	867.90	871.75
Close/Last	864.65	852.40	795.60	880.35	919.25	897.35	876.05	907.40	934.30	874.65	915.90