MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Utilities as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	18	25	28	28	26	28	25	25	31	24
Exceeded High		17	17	25	22	22	22	25	19	23	26	17
Scenario Percentage		68%	94%	100%	79%	79%	85%	89%	76%	92%	84%	71%
Avg Max Increase		4.62%	5.30%	5.11%	5.46%	5.84%	4.75%	4.71%	6.12%	5.75%	4.99%	4.33%
Max Increase		9.67%	11.96%	19.81%	14.30%	11.22%	9.82%	23.61%	13.93%	17.91%	12.12%	7.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	14	19	19	16	16	20	15	18	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.23%	-2.34%	-1.21%	-1.72%	-1.41%	-1.40%	-1.11%	-1.87%	-1.37%	-1.63%	-1.18%
Max Decline		-3.05%	-11.63%	-5.66%	-7.28%	-3.93%	-4.42%	-3.65%	-6.64%	-7.26%	-6.05%	-3.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	11	7	10	7	5	6	12	7	7	4
2018 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	27	19	17	17	19	17	19	20	14	21
Penetrated Low		12	16	11	11	9	12	13	14	11	6	8
Scenario Percentage		63%	59%	58%	65%	53%	63%	76%	74%	55%	43%	38%
Avg Max Decline		7.97%	7.29%	6.47%	4.59%	10.39%	8.92%	7.01%	7.26%	12.17%	4.35%	3.01%
Max Decline		21.92%	12.86%	20.22%	12.12%	35.33%	31.91%	17.96%	38.37%	31.31%	8.28%	4.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	17	20	15	20	16	17	13	18	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.24%	-1.16%	-1.38%	-1.72%	-1.83%	-2.08%	-2.32%	-1.45%	-2.10%	-1.08%	-1.02%
Max Increase		-4.80%	-3.23%	-3.69%	-4.26%	-5.76%	-5.43%	-6.43%	-4.76%	-6.99%	-2.36%	-1.89%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	9	8	4	8	12	11	10	8	2	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes				No
High	773.90	723.55	703.45	696.80	711.85	707.80	719.05	731.25	747.65	745.05	758.40	748.75
Low	714.55	680.00	647.80	660.05	676.55	662.80	655.50	700.10	711.80	703.10	712.05	710.10
Close/Last	723.35	699.25	668.80	692.65	707.00	695.20	711.65	724.25	726.40	720.60	733.85	741.90