MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		32	32	32	41	41	41	41	41	42	42	42
Closed Higher		17	15	12	19	20	26	23	27	21	20	30
Exceeded High		11	10	8	18	20	19	21	23	18	16	19
Scenario Percentage		65%	67%	67%	95%	100%	73%	91%	85%	86%	80%	63%
Avg Max Increase		3.22%	3.85%	7.11%	5.65%	4.10%	4.78%	5.12%	4.77%	3.95%	4.54%	2.87%
Max Increase		6.77%	11.95%	21.24%	13.90%	8.88%	12.26%	16.06%	17.57%	11.82%	13.48%	11.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		12	17	17	16	18	17	16	16	15	11	12
Avg Max Decline		-0.31%	-1.07%	-0.83%	-0.87%	-0.71%	-1.09%	-0.71%	-1.17%	-0.89%	-0.98%	-0.64%
Max Decline		-1.75%	-2.31%	-3.17%	-2.49%	-2.20%	-4.65%	-3.58%	-3.35%	-2.56%	-3.07%	-1.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	11	5	8	8	9	3	7	6	6	2
2018 Contract Condition						Yes			Yes			Yes
Action						Yes			No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		32	32	32	41	41	41	41	41	42	42	42
Closed Lower		15	17	19	21	21	15	18	14	21	22	12
Penetrated Low		11	15	14	18	13	10	14	11	13	13	7
Scenario Percentage		73%	88%	74%	86%	62%	67%	78%	79%	62%	59%	58%
Avg Max Decline		5.02%	3.14%	4.42%	4.30%	4.00%	3.94%	4.05%	5.65%	4.96%	3.34%	2.83%
Max Decline		15.24%	7.81%	11.60%	9.68%	6.80%	11.69%	10.89%	12.39%	11.46%	8.70%	6.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	21	20	15	15	13	17	21	15	11	10
Avg Max Increase		-0.65%	-1.53%	-1.32%	-0.38%	-0.85%	-0.99%	-2.00%	-1.27%	-1.20%	-1.07%	-0.66%
Max Increase		-2.26%	-6.13%	-5.07%	-1.95%	-3.14%	-3.82%	-5.17%	-5.05%	-5.70%	-3.56%	-1.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	13	12	5	4	6	11	9	6	8	3
2018 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High				144~300	145~040	144~220	144~220	145~160	145~060	144~060	140~230	140~310
Low				142~160	140~060	138~280	141~220	141~190	141~030	139~170	136~160	136~240
Close/Last				144~300	142~090	144~130	144~080	142~070	144~070	140~160	138~040	140~170