Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) as of Jul 15, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Feb Feb Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   17 20 27 37 41 41 42 42 43 43 43
Closed Higher   10 14 15 24 18 16 20 22 25 27 29
Exceeded High   7 11 13 19 17 10 18 20 20 25 21
Scenario Percentage   70% 79% 87% 79% 94% 63% 90% 91% 80% 93% 72%
Avg Max Increase   2.97% 2.91% 3.14% 2.48% 1.67% 3.02% 3.46% 2.70% 3.36% 2.72% 1.57%
Max Increase   7.63% 5.70% 8.99% 11.72% 6.75% 9.14% 10.78% 6.35% 7.98% 9.50% 3.28%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 19 15 13 16 17 14 20 16 11 10
Avg Max Decline   -0.14% -0.54% -0.79% -0.74% -0.91% -0.54% -0.47% -0.62% -0.69% -0.55% -0.42%
Max Decline   -0.84% -2.18% -3.19% -4.24% -2.71% -1.37% -1.32% -4.37% -2.41% -2.24% -1.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline   2 5 10 9 10 7 6 8 9 5 2
2025 Contract Condition         Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes    
Action         Yes Yes Yes No   Yes    
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Feb Feb Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   17 20 27 37 41 41 42 42 43 43 43
Closed Lower   7 6 12 13 23 24 21 20 18 16 14
Penetrated Low   4 3 8 13 20 17 16 12 9 10 6
Scenario Percentage   57% 50% 67% 100% 87% 71% 76% 60% 50% 63% 43%
Avg Max Decline   1.67% 1.53% 1.99% 2.37% 2.44% 2.84% 3.06% 2.60% 2.56% 2.00% 1.58%
Max Decline   2.29% 2.87% 4.22% 5.66% 7.34% 9.11% 6.90% 4.91% 6.67% 5.63% 3.68%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 3 20 16 17 17 16 14 10 11 11
Avg Max Increase   -0.04% -0.57% -1.11% -0.46% -0.46% -0.74% -0.46% -0.67% -0.64% -0.54% -0.24%
Max Increase   -1.44% -0.88% -3.52% -1.37% -1.72% -3.65% -1.64% -1.83% -1.58% -1.11% -0.46%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 6 18 8 8 11 10 4 10 7 4
2025 Contract Condition                 Yes   Yes  
Action                 Not Yet      
High       108~290 109~090 111~090 112~020 114~140 112~245 112~055 112~125  
Low       108~115 107~050 108~060 110~070 109~095 109~125 109~280 110~085  
Close/Last       108~220 108~235 111~040 111~090 112~110 110~240 112~040 110~090  

Banner

Newsflash

Its stability & liquidity make it a trader’s dream. With 2025’s geopolitical storms brewing, MRCI’s Brent Oil Report shows you how to ride seasonal waves as you manage risk. Intrigued?