MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		17	20	27	31	35	35	36	36	37	37	37
Closed Higher		10	14	15	21	17	12	17	17	21	23	27
Exceeded High		7	11	13	16	16	8	16	15	16	21	19
Scenario Percentage		70%	79%	87%	76%	94%	67%	94%	88%	76%	91%	70%
Avg Max Increase		2.97%	2.91%	3.14%	2.29%	1.52%	3.29%	3.70%	2.97%	3.54%	3.01%	1.60%
Max Increase		7.63%	5.70%	8.99%	11.72%	6.75%	9.14%	10.78%	6.35%	7.98%	9.50%	3.28%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	15	11	15	17	15	19	17	11	10
Avg Max Decline		-0.14%	-0.54%	-0.79%	-0.51%	-0.94%	-0.42%	-0.47%	-0.38%	-0.71%	-0.62%	-0.45%
Max Decline		-0.84%	-2.18%	-3.19%	-2.77%	-2.71%	-1.37%	-1.32%	-1.03%	-2.41%	-2.24%	-1.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	5	10	7	9	4	6	7	10	5	2
2018 Contract Condition							Yes		Yes			Yes
Action							Yes		No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		17	20	27	31	35	35	36	36	37	37	37
Closed Lower		7	6	12	10	18	22	18	19	16	14	10
Penetrated Low		4	3	8	10	15	16	15	11	8	9	4
Scenario Percentage		57%	50%	67%	100%	83%	73%	83%	58%	50%	64%	40%
Avg Max Decline		1.67%	1.53%	1.99%	1.77%	2.32%	2.71%	3.01%	2.49%	2.50%	1.97%	1.69%
Max Decline		2.29%	2.87%	4.22%	4.63%	5.93%	9.11%	6.90%	4.91%	6.67%	5.63%	3.68%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	3	20	13	18	18	16	15	9	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-0.04%	-0.57%	-1.11%	-0.49%	-0.40%	-0.81%	-0.38%	-0.68%	-0.61%	-0.55%	-0.29%
Max Increase		-1.44%	-0.88%	-3.52%	-1.37%	-1.28%	-3.65%	-1.64%	-1.83%	-1.58%	-1.11%	-0.46%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	18	7	10	12	9	4	9	7	3
2018 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes		Yes		No	Yes
High				123~310	123~000	121~000	120~315	121~035	121~030	120~145	120~200	120~240
Low				122~200	120~200	119~035	119~130	118~195	117~300	118~295	119~080	119~025
Close/Last				123~085	120~200	119~185	120~285	119~090	120~140	120~060	119~135	120~125