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ScenarioSM Study for June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2016 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May |
Tested Years | 19 | 21 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | |
Closed Higher | 11 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 14 | |
Exceeded High | 9 | 15 | 19 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 12 | |
Scenario Percentage | 82% | 94% | 95% | 70% | 95% | 86% | 70% | 82% | 58% | 100% | 86% | |
Avg Max Increase | 3.96% | 2.95% | 2.61% | 3.18% | 2.58% | 3.05% | 2.71% | 2.17% | 3.84% | 3.29% | 1.82% | |
Max Increase | 9.06% | 11.62% | 7.59% | 7.76% | 5.65% | 8.72% | 11.48% | 6.91% | 9.31% | 10.46% | 3.23% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 13 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 11 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.55% | -0.54% | -0.33% | -0.33% | -0.53% | -0.91% | -0.79% | -0.53% | -0.46% | -0.44% | -0.19% | |
Max Decline | -2.13% | -1.84% | -1.22% | -1.32% | -2.12% | -3.16% | -2.88% | -1.61% | -1.43% | -1.24% | -0.64% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 4 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | |
2015 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.