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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) as of Jul 07, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Feb Feb Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   19 22 28 39 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Higher   10 11 16 25 29 30 21 25 21 29 21
Exceeded High   10 10 12 22 26 25 18 23 18 20 17
Scenario Percentage   100% 91% 75% 88% 90% 83% 86% 92% 86% 69% 81%
Avg Max Increase   3.57% 2.63% 3.06% 2.79% 3.00% 2.57% 2.76% 2.51% 2.89% 2.64% 1.50%
Max Increase   9.87% 5.99% 5.18% 9.68% 12.83% 7.97% 7.51% 6.39% 8.15% 9.27% 4.37%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 21 21 15 13 16 14 16 18 11 9
Avg Max Decline   -0.11% -0.22% -0.59% -0.21% -0.60% -0.58% -0.60% -0.68% -1.01% -0.78% -0.26%
Max Decline   -0.40% -0.99% -2.04% -2.11% -2.14% -1.38% -2.27% -2.19% -3.13% -2.57% -1.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline   3 10 11 4 10 9 8 8 9 8 3
2025 Contract Condition         Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action         Yes Yes No   Yes   Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Feb Feb Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   19 22 28 39 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Lower   9 11 11 14 14 13 22 18 21 14 22
Penetrated Low   7 8 6 9 11 10 15 14 13 11 18
Scenario Percentage   78% 73% 55% 64% 79% 77% 68% 78% 62% 79% 82%
Avg Max Decline   3.46% 2.58% 1.87% 2.30% 2.90% 2.34% 1.89% 2.01% 2.40% 1.90% 1.45%
Max Decline   6.91% 5.27% 6.46% 5.88% 8.03% 4.52% 5.11% 4.49% 4.53% 3.53% 2.67%
Avg Days To Max Decline   11 13 10 18 20 15 15 13 20 14 11
Avg Max Increase   -0.20% -0.59% -0.44% -0.67% -0.46% -0.80% -0.54% -0.61% -0.90% -0.85% -0.41%
Max Increase   -0.68% -1.40% -1.45% -2.04% -1.66% -2.89% -1.64% -1.35% -3.95% -1.72% -1.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase   14 6 9 8 10 6 9 3 11 9 4
2025 Contract Condition               Yes   Yes    
Action               Yes   Yes    
High       111~245 112~240 115~040 116~020 115~120 111~080 111~205 109~130 111~080
Low       110~280 110~010 113~125 114~100 110~110 109~025 108~065 107~060 108~040
Close/Last       110~280 112~240 113~280 114~205 110~215 111~060 108~240 108~270 111~020

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