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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Transportation as of Jun 30, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   32 34 32 26 29 28 24 27 20 25 19
Exceeded High   29 30 30 23 23 22 20 19 18 19 13
Scenario Percentage   91% 88% 94% 88% 79% 79% 83% 70% 90% 76% 68%
Avg Max Increase   8.11% 8.35% 8.77% 8.11% 8.11% 9.23% 7.02% 8.24% 8.78% 6.65% 5.25%
Max Increase   21.22% 25.56% 25.49% 18.41% 16.40% 28.84% 20.52% 18.59% 24.03% 20.58% 11.25%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 19 16 16 20 18 13 21 15 14 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.18% -2.10% -1.93% -1.95% -1.78% -1.87% -2.42% -2.68% -2.05% -2.79% -1.36%
Max Decline   -9.74% -6.04% -4.70% -7.66% -5.48% -6.03% -10.41% -6.65% -9.97% -9.31% -5.70%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 13 8 8 8 7 6 12 8 7 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes       Yes Yes    
Action     No   No       Yes Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   13 10 13 19 16 17 21 18 25 20 26
Penetrated Low   6 8 6 12 12 10 14 14 16 17 13
Scenario Percentage   46% 80% 46% 63% 75% 59% 67% 78% 64% 85% 50%
Avg Max Decline   11.01% 10.02% 13.23% 11.62% 9.40% 6.54% 6.76% 6.16% 10.33% 9.55% 9.82%
Max Decline   25.14% 20.96% 18.76% 38.67% 30.97% 11.18% 14.05% 10.86% 24.93% 25.62% 30.96%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 19 21 12 13 24 18 17 19 18 23
Avg Max Increase   -3.69% -3.50% -2.05% -2.88% -1.94% -2.29% -2.61% -2.68% -2.85% -1.80% -1.95%
Max Increase   -8.38% -5.92% -5.02% -9.17% -4.17% -7.11% -5.73% -8.28% -7.61% -4.10% -4.47%
Avg Days to Max Increase   13 12 5 7 5 15 7 8 8 8 5
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes        
Action   No   No   Yes Yes No        
High 16413.00 16671.00 17846.00 17634.00 16901.00 16806.00 16137.00 15018.00 15190.00 15537.00    
Low 15227.00 15650.00 16276.00 15677.00 15732.00 15738.00 14244.00 12471.00 13542.00 14418.00    
Close/Last 16295.00 16252.00 17619.00 15896.00 16307.00 15986.00 14746.00 13640.00 14686.00 15395.00    

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