MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Transportation as of Oct 31, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		26	27	29	27	28	20	24	21	20	31	34
Exceeded High		23	23	25	23	19	17	19	17	19	28	27
Scenario Percentage		88%	85%	86%	85%	68%	85%	79%	81%	95%	90%	79%
Avg Max Increase		7.98%	8.11%	9.30%	6.84%	8.36%	9.25%	7.27%	8.42%	10.28%	8.01%	4.43%
Max Increase		18.41%	16.40%	28.84%	20.52%	18.59%	24.03%	20.58%	22.99%	28.74%	21.22%	8.91%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	20	18	13	21	15	15	19	21	17	16
Avg Max Decline		-2.21%	-1.78%	-1.87%	-2.44%	-2.49%	-1.99%	-2.30%	-2.50%	-2.90%	-2.08%	-1.04%
Max Decline		-7.66%	-5.48%	-6.03%	-10.41%	-6.65%	-9.97%	-9.31%	-8.42%	-8.89%	-9.74%	-3.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	8	8	6	11	8	7	11	10	12	5
2022 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes			Yes
Action				No				Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	18	16	18	17	25	21	24	24	14	10
Penetrated Low		13	13	9	12	14	16	18	12	13	7	7
Scenario Percentage		68%	72%	56%	67%	82%	64%	86%	50%	54%	50%	70%
Avg Max Decline		10.79%	8.79%	6.47%	6.51%	5.70%	10.30%	9.43%	14.28%	13.78%	9.92%	4.61%
Max Decline		38.67%	30.97%	11.18%	10.71%	10.68%	24.93%	25.62%	36.57%	36.98%	25.14%	9.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	12	24	18	17	18	18	19	17	14	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.96%	-1.87%	-2.44%	-2.18%	-2.87%	-2.66%	-1.75%	-2.49%	-3.23%	-4.05%	-2.75%
Max Increase		-9.17%	-4.17%	-7.11%	-4.23%	-8.28%	-7.61%	-4.10%	-5.56%	-6.67%	-8.38%	-5.12%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	5	14	7	8	8	8	12	9	16	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	16597.00	16622.00	15769.00	16729.00	16381.00	15554.00	14616.00	14670.00	15301.00	14304.00	13742.00
Low	15423.00	14567.00	14134.00	14601.00	14272.00	13163.00	12777.00	12748.00	13858.00	11946.00	12125.00
Close/Last	16478.00	15283.00	15268.00	16283.00	14865.00	14301.00	13157.00	14609.00	13861.00	12058.00	13584.00