MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Transportation as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Higher	25	23	26	23	22	18	19	18	14	27	28
Exceeded High	23	19	22	19	14	15	15	13	14	24	22
Scenario Percentage	92%	83%	85%	83%	64%	83%	79%	72%	100%	89%	79%
Avg Max Increase	8.16%	7.83%	10.26%	6.44%	9.00%	8.66%	8.71%	9.94%	10.04%	8.27%	4.98%
Max Increase	18.41%	19.90%	28.84%	13.17%	18.59%	21.17%	20.58%	22.99%	28.74%	21.22%	13.73%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	19	18	16	22	13	16	18	18	16	15
Avg Max Decline	-2.24%	-1.96%	-1.62%	-2.29%	-2.43%	-2.25%	-2.59%	-2.10%	-2.02%	-2.27%	-0.87%
Max Decline	-7.66%	-5.48%	-4.33%	-7.65%	-6.65%	-9.97%	-9.09%	-5.70%	-5.56%	-9.74%	-2.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	11	8	6	10	7	7	6	6	13	4
2009 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Lower	14	17	14	16	17	22	21	22	25	13	11
Penetrated Low	10	12	8	11	14	16	18	13	15	6	9
Scenario Percentage	71%	71%	57%	69%	82%	73%	86%	59%	60%	46%	82%
Avg Max Decline	10.63%	7.28%	10.20%	8.95%	7.10%	9.03%	9.90%	13.69%	13.25%	10.12%	11.96%
Max Decline	28.05%	14.61%	24.86%	23.72%	19.44%	24.93%	25.62%	36.57%	36.98%	25.14%	44.15%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	14	24	21	20	16	18	18	17	14	9
Avg Max Increase	-2.59%	-1.97%	-1.62%	-2.36%	-4.23%	-2.86%	-1.96%	-2.27%	-2.78%	-3.41%	-4.24%
Max Increase	-9.17%	-4.17%	-5.22%	-4.23%	-11.88%	-8.33%	-5.73%	-5.56%	-6.67%	-6.22%	-14.76%
Avg Days to Max Increase	5	8	7	7	10	8	5	12	6	14	8
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes								Yes
Action	Yes	Yes								Yes
High	3737.00	3238.00	2866.00	3228.00	3458.00	3434.00	3614.00	3819.00	4056.00	4066.00	4060.00
Low	2921.00	2457.00	2134.00	2622.00	2972.00	3041.00	2989.00	3561.00	3572.00	3591.00	3546.00
Close/Last	2966.00	2499.00	2684.00	3144.00	3202.00	3235.00	3580.00	3667.00	3800.00	3613.00	3938.00