MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	25	25	24	21	21	20	18	22	18	26
Exceeded High		17	23	21	21	16	20	15	11	17	14	16
Scenario Percentage		77%	92%	84%	88%	76%	95%	75%	61%	77%	78%	62%
Avg Max Increase		8.31%	6.24%	6.13%	7.52%	14.94%	12.86%	15.04%	11.22%	9.80%	8.86%	4.49%
Max Increase		28.07%	21.06%	11.12%	25.93%	46.60%	31.40%	53.92%	33.40%	36.42%	20.87%	9.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	17	14	18	18	14	14	15	15	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.15%	-1.94%	-1.53%	-2.02%	-2.30%	-2.26%	-0.83%	-2.49%	-1.29%	-2.55%	-1.16%
Max Decline		-8.74%	-7.68%	-5.65%	-6.24%	-9.87%	-6.79%	-5.64%	-6.44%	-4.33%	-6.99%	-4.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	8	7	12	10	6	2	7	4	6	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes				Yes	No			Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	20	20	21	24	24	25	27	23	27	19
Penetrated Low		16	14	15	17	17	23	24	22	17	23	7
Scenario Percentage		70%	70%	75%	81%	71%	96%	96%	81%	74%	85%	37%
Avg Max Decline		6.38%	5.69%	5.58%	5.06%	8.71%	7.88%	9.64%	7.71%	8.20%	6.86%	4.14%
Max Decline		25.13%	17.95%	11.66%	11.98%	17.25%	20.11%	27.55%	26.00%	37.69%	21.05%	9.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	14	12	18	18	20	15	14	13	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.66%	-2.01%	-1.82%	-2.53%	-2.72%	-4.09%	-3.23%	-2.36%	-2.05%	-1.73%	-1.15%
Max Increase		-6.81%	-6.50%	-3.43%	-7.52%	-9.28%	-13.29%	-12.72%	-14.59%	-8.34%	-5.22%	-2.34%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	6	7	11	11	13	7	8	6	5	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
High	948.00	971.00	965.00	969.25	957.50	940.25	918.50	948.00	936.50	896.75	906.75	945.50
Low	898.00	923.50	934.25	938.75	918.00	872.25	815.50	875.25	880.00	852.50	851.00	903.25
Close/Last	939.25	935.25	955.50	943.75	919.00	874.75	904.75	923.00	881.50	869.00	906.00	916.75