MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	25	25	24	21	20	20	19	22	18	25
Exceeded High		17	23	21	21	16	19	16	12	17	14	16
Scenario Percentage		77%	92%	84%	88%	76%	95%	80%	63%	77%	78%	64%
Avg Max Increase		8.31%	6.43%	6.13%	7.52%	14.94%	13.29%	17.61%	10.32%	9.80%	9.18%	4.49%
Max Increase		28.07%	21.06%	11.12%	25.93%	46.60%	31.40%	56.14%	33.40%	36.42%	20.87%	9.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	18	14	18	18	14	13	14	15	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.15%	-2.04%	-1.53%	-2.02%	-2.30%	-2.21%	-0.72%	-2.47%	-1.29%	-2.67%	-1.16%
Max Decline		-8.74%	-7.68%	-5.65%	-6.24%	-9.87%	-6.79%	-5.64%	-6.44%	-4.33%	-6.99%	-4.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	8	7	12	10	6	2	7	4	6	2
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes				No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	20	20	21	24	25	25	26	23	27	20
Penetrated Low		16	14	15	17	16	23	24	21	17	23	7
Scenario Percentage		70%	70%	75%	81%	67%	92%	96%	81%	74%	85%	35%
Avg Max Decline		6.38%	5.69%	6.31%	5.17%	8.83%	7.88%	9.64%	7.91%	8.40%	6.86%	4.14%
Max Decline		25.13%	17.95%	18.58%	13.02%	17.25%	20.11%	27.55%	26.00%	37.69%	21.05%	9.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	14	10	17	18	20	15	15	12	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.66%	-2.01%	-1.98%	-2.37%	-2.86%	-4.09%	-3.23%	-2.39%	-2.07%	-1.73%	-1.15%
Max Increase		-6.81%	-6.50%	-3.94%	-7.52%	-9.28%	-13.29%	-12.72%	-14.59%	-8.34%	-5.22%	-2.34%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	6	7	11	12	13	7	8	6	5	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Not Yet
High	1015.00	1024.00	1017.00	1036.25	1049.25	1060.00	1060.50	1042.00	922.25	915.00	859.25	892.00
Low	980.50	970.00	967.50	989.00	1009.75	997.75	1002.00	864.50	826.25	828.75	812.25	831.75
Close/Last	1001.00	975.75	1011.25	1032.25	1047.75	1044.75	1034.25	880.00	919.00	843.50	845.50	839.00