MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Soybeans(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	24	25	24	23	22	20	18	23	17	25
Exceeded High		18	22	22	21	18	21	16	13	18	13	17
Scenario Percentage		75%	92%	88%	88%	78%	95%	80%	72%	78%	76%	68%
Avg Max Increase		9.01%	7.34%	6.66%	7.64%	16.63%	13.64%	17.30%	10.63%	9.61%	9.61%	4.43%
Max Increase		28.07%	21.06%	13.83%	25.93%	56.55%	31.40%	56.14%	33.40%	36.42%	20.87%	9.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	17	15	18	17	14	14	14	16	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.18%	-2.09%	-1.71%	-1.81%	-2.28%	-2.66%	-0.93%	-3.01%	-1.31%	-3.10%	-1.14%
Max Decline		-8.74%	-7.68%	-6.96%	-6.24%	-9.87%	-11.83%	-5.64%	-9.48%	-4.33%	-6.99%	-4.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	8	6	12	10	8	4	6	6	7	2
2016 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	21	20	21	22	23	25	27	22	28	20
Penetrated Low		15	14	15	16	14	21	24	21	17	24	7
Scenario Percentage		71%	67%	75%	76%	64%	91%	96%	78%	77%	86%	35%
Avg Max Decline		6.74%	5.69%	6.31%	5.24%	8.51%	7.62%	9.65%	7.91%	9.72%	7.39%	4.14%
Max Decline		25.13%	17.95%	18.58%	13.02%	14.78%	17.02%	27.55%	26.00%	37.69%	21.05%	9.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	14	10	16	18	20	15	15	13	14	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.67%	-2.01%	-1.98%	-2.35%	-2.96%	-4.24%	-3.39%	-2.39%	-1.97%	-1.74%	-1.15%
Max Increase		-6.81%	-6.50%	-3.94%	-7.52%	-9.28%	-13.29%	-12.72%	-14.59%	-8.34%	-5.22%	-2.34%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	6	7	9	11	13	7	8	6	5	2
2016 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes					Yes	Yes
High	900.50	926.50	896.25	898.00	929.50	1023.50	1079.75	1186.25	1157.50	1020.00	994.00	1020.00
Low	859.25	870.00	868.00	872.00	868.00	916.00	997.00	1045.00	963.00	938.00	934.00	937.25
Close/Last	899.00	882.75	893.00	873.50	924.75	1007.75	1055.75	1153.25	1003.00	943.00	954.00	1002.25