MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	25	24	24	23	21	21	20	24	16	27
Exceeded High		19	22	21	21	18	20	18	14	19	12	17
Scenario Percentage		79%	88%	88%	88%	78%	95%	86%	70%	79%	75%	63%
Avg Max Increase		8.73%	7.21%	6.84%	6.97%	16.29%	14.24%	16.02%	10.03%	9.36%	10.28%	4.34%
Max Increase		28.07%	21.06%	13.83%	25.93%	56.55%	31.40%	56.14%	33.40%	36.42%	20.87%	9.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	16	15	18	17	14	14	14	17	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.09%	-1.99%	-1.70%	-1.87%	-2.17%	-2.73%	-0.64%	-2.82%	-1.28%	-3.02%	-0.88%
Max Decline		-8.74%	-7.68%	-6.96%	-6.24%	-9.87%	-11.83%	-2.43%	-9.48%	-4.33%	-6.99%	-4.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	9	7	13	10	8	3	7	6	7	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	20	21	21	22	24	24	25	21	29	18
Penetrated Low		12	14	16	15	14	21	23	19	16	23	5
Scenario Percentage		63%	70%	76%	71%	64%	88%	96%	76%	76%	79%	28%
Avg Max Decline		7.59%	5.86%	5.94%	4.99%	8.29%	7.07%	9.32%	7.16%	9.58%	7.70%	4.84%
Max Decline		25.13%	17.95%	18.58%	13.02%	14.78%	17.02%	27.55%	26.00%	37.69%	21.05%	9.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	13	12	15	19	21	14	14	13	15	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.76%	-1.58%	-1.96%	-2.27%	-2.91%	-4.16%	-3.41%	-2.46%	-1.92%	-1.94%	-1.42%
Max Increase		-6.81%	-6.50%	-3.94%	-7.52%	-9.28%	-13.29%	-12.72%	-14.59%	-8.34%	-6.42%	-2.34%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	4	9	9	11	14	7	9	6	5	3
2012 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes				Yes	Yes
Action			No				Yes				Yes	Yes
High	1239.25	1214.00	1231.00	1293.75	1370.00	1396.50	1394.50	1439.75	1691.50	1771.25	1789.00	1600.00
Low	1119.50	1115.75	1163.50	1203.25	1278.25	1332.00	1251.25	1244.75	1430.50	1555.25	1557.50	1485.75
Close/Last	1146.75	1204.25	1201.50	1289.00	1358.00	1381.00	1270.25	1427.75	1641.00	1756.50	1601.00	1547.00