MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	27	25	23	21	22	23	18	23	17	25
Exceeded High		16	22	22	20	17	21	20	10	18	12	17
Scenario Percentage		76%	81%	88%	87%	81%	95%	87%	56%	78%	71%	68%
Avg Max Increase		9.26%	7.09%	6.36%	6.55%	16.69%	13.65%	14.02%	10.11%	9.14%	8.58%	3.62%
Max Increase		28.07%	21.06%	13.83%	25.93%	56.55%	31.40%	56.14%	33.40%	36.42%	18.64%	9.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	15	16	20	17	15	15	12	16	10	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.99%	-1.65%	-1.51%	-1.84%	-1.79%	-2.56%	-1.02%	-2.91%	-1.35%	-2.56%	-0.83%
Max Decline		-8.74%	-5.81%	-6.96%	-6.24%	-4.96%	-11.83%	-3.53%	-9.48%	-4.33%	-6.99%	-4.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	7	7	15	9	8	5	6	6	7	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	18	20	22	24	23	22	27	22	28	18
Penetrated Low		11	13	15	16	16	18	22	20	16	22	4
Scenario Percentage		58%	72%	75%	73%	67%	78%	100%	74%	73%	79%	22%
Avg Max Decline		7.25%	4.94%	5.93%	5.03%	7.37%	7.69%	9.35%	6.90%	9.52%	7.32%	3.63%
Max Decline		25.13%	17.95%	18.58%	13.02%	14.78%	17.02%	27.55%	26.00%	37.69%	21.05%	5.19%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	15	13	15	19	22	15	15	14	15	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.73%	-1.46%	-1.90%	-1.79%	-2.78%	-4.56%	-2.94%	-2.37%	-2.07%	-1.98%	-1.39%
Max Increase		-6.81%	-6.50%	-3.94%	-6.42%	-9.28%	-13.29%	-12.72%	-14.59%	-8.34%	-6.42%	-2.34%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	4	9	9	10	16	7	9	6	6	3
2008 Contract Condition					Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	1045.00	1132.50	1304.50	1440.00	1473.25	1316.75	1374.75	1579.00	1636.75	1409.25	1314.00	1066.00
Low	935.00	1003.50	1121.75	1245.00	1089.50	1045.25	1164.75	1338.50	1351.75	1168.00	1039.00	825.00
Close/Last	1010.75	1120.50	1245.50	1426.00	1089.50	1225.50	1354.50	1574.00	1404.00	1324.00	1045.00	925.25